自然资源学报

自然资源学报 ›› 2015, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (5): 836-845.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2015.05.011

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嘉陵江流域降水变化及旱涝多时间尺度分析

杜华明1,2, 延军平2, 杨登兴2, 杨蓉2   

  1. 1. 绵阳师范学院资源环境工程学院, 四川绵阳621000;
    2. 陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院, 西安710062
  • 收稿日期:2014-03-19 修回日期:2014-08-26 出版日期:2015-05-20 发布日期:2015-05-20
  • 通讯作者: 延军平,E-mail:yanjp@snnu.edu.cn E-mail:yanjp@snnu.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:杜华明(1977-),女,四川广元人,讲师,博士研究生,主要从事区域环境与灾害方向研究。E-mail:dhuaming2004@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目(41171090)“部分重大自然灾害的时空对称性:结构、机理与适应对策”。

The Distribution of Precipitation and Multi-temporal Scales Drought-flood Analysis in the Jialing River Basin

DU Hua-ming1,2, YAN Jun-ping2, YANG Deng-xing2, YANG Rong2   

  1. 1. College of Resources and Environmental Engineering, Mianyang Normal University, Mianyang 621000, China;
    2. College of Tourism and Environmental Sciences, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an 710062, China
  • Received:2014-03-19 Revised:2014-08-26 Online:2015-05-20 Published:2015-05-20

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摘要：

依据嘉陵江流域1961—2012 年的气象数据,采用数理统计方法结合GIS空间分析技术,探讨了嘉陵江流域降水量时空变化和旱涝灾害特征。结果表明:近52 a 来全流域年平均降水量以13.69 mm/10 a 的速率减少,并在1984 年发生突变,随后降水量明显减少;从区域分析看,受季风和海拔高度等因素的影响,降水量东南多西北少;近52 a 来,除达县和沙坪坝两个站点降水量呈微弱增加外,其余地区降水量均呈减少趋势,略阳—广元—绵阳一带降水量减少速率最高。嘉陵江流域20 世纪60 年代偏涝,涝灾发生频率高;70 至80 年代旱涝灾害交替出现,整体偏涝;90 年代以来,该流域旱灾发生频率与程度均高于涝灾,整体偏旱;该流域由涝灾向旱灾转化的趋势明显。

关键词: 旱涝灾害, 标准化降水指数(SPI), 嘉陵江流域

Abstract:

Based on the meteorological data in the Jialing River Basin from 1961 to 2012, the distribution of precipitation and drought-flood were analyzed by using the methods of mathematical statistics and GIS spatial analysis. The results showed that: In the past 52 years the annual average precipitation had a decreased trend in the Jialing River Basin with the rate of 13.69 mm/10 a, the sudden precipitation reduction occurred in 1984. The trends of seasonal precipitation varied greatly, that summer and winter precipitation increased by the rate of 5.76 mm/10 a and 0.64 mm/10 a respectively, and spring and autumn precipitation decreased by the rate of 5.1 mm/10 a and 15.16 mm/10 a respectively. Affected by the monsoon and the altitude, the precipitation had distinct spatial difference in the Jialing River Basin. The precipitation in this basin showed a decreasing trend from the southeast to the northwest. The annual average precipitation was 1000.01-1254.63 mm in the east of Bazhong-Langzhong-Suining, 800.01-1000.00 mm in the east of Lueyang-Mianyang and west of Bazhong-Langzhong-Suining, and it was 464.59-800.00 mm in the west of Lueyang-Mianyang. The precipitation showed a decreasing trend except that in Daxian and Shapingba. The areas in the east of Bazhong-Langzhong-Suining and in Wudu region had the most reduction of precipitation, with the rate of -0.01 mm/10 a--10.00 mm/10 a. The precipitation largely reduced in the line of Lueyang-Guangyuan-Mianyang, with the rate of -20.01 mm/10 a--39.08 mm/10 a. The frequency of waterlogging was high in the 1960s. The drought and flood disasters appeared alternately in the 1970s and 1980s, but it was overall waterlogged; it was droughty since the 1990s, that the frequency and the degree of drought were higher than that waterlogging. The Jialing River Basin became increasingly dry in recent 52 years. However, 1990 was a turning point that this area was flood before 1990 and drought after 1990. It was coherent with the precipitation in this area, which had an obvious waterlogging to drought trend, and the trend of drought was persistent. More attention should be paid to the drought control work.

Key words: droughts and floods, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the Jialing River Basin

中图分类号: 

  • P426.616