自然资源学报 ›› 2015, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (5): 784-795.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2015.05.007

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近50 a气候变化背景下我国玉米生产潜力时空演变特征

葛亚宁1, 刘洛2,3,4, 徐新良2, 张学霞1, 袁兰兰5, 张晓峰5   

  1. 1. 北京林业大学, 北京100083;
    2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室, 北京100101;
    3. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所, 乌鲁木齐830011;
    4. 中国科学院大学, 北京100049;
    5. 华中师范大学, 武汉430079
  • 收稿日期:2014-04-24 修回日期:2015-01-16 出版日期:2015-05-20 发布日期:2015-05-20
  • 通讯作者: 徐新良(1972-),男,山东青岛人,博士,副研究员,硕士生导师,主要从事土地利用/土地覆被变化与陆地生态系统综合监测与评估研究。E-mail:xuxl@lreis.ac.cn E-mail:xuxl@lreis.ac.cn
  • 作者简介:葛亚宁(1990-),女,汉族,安徽蚌埠人,硕士研究生,主要从事3S技术在资源环境中的应用研究。E-mail:sugar0417@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家科技支撑计划(2013BAC03B01);中国科学院西部行动计划项目(KZCX2-XB3-08-01);高分辨率对地观测系统重大专项(05-Y30B02-9001-13/15-10)。

Temporal and Spatial Variations of Chinese Maize Production Potential on the Background of Climate Change during 1960-2010

GE Ya-ning1, LIU Luo2,3,4, XU Xin-liang2, ZHANG Xue-xia1, YUAN Lan-lan5, ZHANG Xiao-feng5   

  1. 1. Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China;
    2. State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information Systems, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    3. Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, CAS, Urumqi 830011, China;
    4. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;
    5. Central China Normal University, Wuhan 430079, China
  • Received:2014-04-24 Revised:2015-01-16 Online:2015-05-20 Published:2015-05-20

摘要:

以2010 年我国耕地空间分布遥感监测数据为基础,在1960—2010 年的长时间序列气象数据、土壤数据等数据基础上,采用GAEZ(Global Agro-Ecological Zones)模型综合考虑光、温、水、CO2浓度、农业气候限制、土壤、地形等多方面因素,估算了中国玉米生产潜力,进而分析了近50 a 来气候变化背景下我国玉米生产潜力的时空格局特征。研究表明:①2010 年中国玉米生产潜力总量是8.34×108 t,玉米生产潜力空间差异显著,总体呈现东高西低的趋势,东北平原区的玉米生产潜力总量最高,达到1.97×108 t,青藏高原区玉米生产潜力总量最小;②近50 a 来中国玉米单产潜力和生产潜力总量整体呈现减少的趋势;③中国玉米单产潜力和生产潜力总量变化的区域差异较大,东北平原区的平均玉米单产潜力和生产潜力总量的增长趋势都最为明显,其他各区的变化趋势都相对较小。研究揭示了近50 a 来气候变化背景下我国玉米生产潜力的时空演变特征,这为探究如何适应气候变化、提高中国玉米产量水平、科学指导玉米生产经营提供了科学依据。

关键词: 玉米, 生产潜力, GAEZ模型

Abstract:

Based on the remote sensing data of arable land spatial distribution in China in 2010, and meteorological data, soil data and other data from 1960 to 2010, using GAEZ (Global Agro-Ecological Zones) model, we took into account of the light, temperature, water, CO2 concentration, agro-climatic constraints, soil, topography and other factors to estimate Chinese maize production potential, and analyzed the spatial and temporal patterns of Chinese maize production potential caused by climate change in the past 50 years. Studies have shown that: 1) In 2010, the total production potential of maize in China is 834 million tons, and there are significant spatial differences of maize production potential, which gradually decreases from east to west; the total production potential of maize in Northeast China Plain is the highest, reaching 197 million tons; maize production potential in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is the minimum. 2) In the past 50 years both the maize production potential and total production potential of China showed decreasing trends. 3) The changes of maize production potential and total production potential in China have great regional differences. Northeast China Plain has the greatest increase of both the maize production potential and the total production potential; changes in other districts are relatively smaller. This study reveals the temporal and spatial variations of Chinese maize production potential on the background of climate change in the past 50 years. It provides a scientific basis for exploring how to adapt to climate change, how to raise the level of Chinese maize production and how to guide maize production and management.

Key words: GAEZ model, maize, production potential

中图分类号: 

  • S162.3