自然资源学报

自然资源学报 ›› 2015, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (4): 673-683.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2015.04.013

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基于Copula函数的泾河流域水沙关系演变特征分析

郭爱军, 黄强, 畅建霞, 黎云云, 孙佳宁, 王义民   

  1. 西北旱区生态水利工程国家重点实验室培育基地(西安理工大学), 西安710048
  • 收稿日期:2014-05-26 修回日期:2014-08-18 出版日期:2015-04-20 发布日期:2015-04-16
  • 通讯作者: 黄强(1958- ),男,四川梓潼人,教授,博士生导师,主要从事水资源系统工程研究.
  • 作者简介:郭爱军(1990- ),男,陕西西安人,博士,主要从事水资源系统工程研究.E-mail:sfagaj@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然基金(51190093, 51179148, 51179149, 51309188);陕西省重点科技创新团队(2012KCT-10);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(20116118110009);陕西省教育厅重点实验室项目(13JS069);陕西省科技统筹创新工程计划项目(2013SZS02-Z02).

Variation of Relationship between Runoff and Sediment Based on Copula Function in the Jinghe River Basin

GUO Ai-jun, HUANG Qiang, CHANG Jian-xia, LI Yun-yun, SUN Jia-ning, WANG Yi-min   

  1. State Key Laboratory Base of Eco-hydraulic Engineering in Arid Area (Xi'an University of Technology), Xi'an 710048, China
  • Received:2014-05-26 Revised:2014-08-18 Online:2015-04-20 Published:2015-04-16

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摘要：

为了掌握泾河流域水沙演变规律,基于张家山水文站1956—2010 年径流与输沙量数据,采用滑动平均法分析流域水沙变化,提出应用滑动相关系数法诊断水沙关系变异,与双累积曲线法相互验证,选取皮尔逊III 型分布拟合变异前后水沙分布,基于Copula 函数建立水沙联合分布,对比分析泾河流域水沙变化特征,研究不同时段水沙丰枯遭遇情况.结果表明:① 水沙关系于20 世纪80 年代发生变异;② 以1982 年为分割点,相比于1956—1982 年,1983—2010 年水沙均值减小,设计频率P≤90%时水沙值均减小,P >90%时,径流减小,输沙量增加;③ 两阶段水沙丰枯同步频率大于丰枯异步频率,“水丰沙枯或水枯沙丰”遭遇组合概率最小,变异后时段(1983—2010 年)各种遭遇组合频率分布更为均匀,水沙丰枯异步频率变大.

关键词: Copula函数, 泾河流域, 水沙关系, 丰枯遭遇频率

Abstract:

To grasp the evolution characteristics of the annual runoff and sediment in the Jinghe River Basin, moving average test was applied to analyze multi-year and annual variation based on annual runoff and sediment of Zhangjiashan Hydrological Station, and moving correlation analysis and double mass curve were used to detect the abrupt change point of the relationship of flow-sediment. With P-III curve method and popular Copula-constructed two-dimensional joint distribution of runoff and sediment, the variation characteristics of runoff and sediment were analyzed, and the encounter probability of rich-poor runoff and sediment in different periods were calculated. Results showed that: the alteration of runoff- sediment relationship occurred in 1980s. Compared to the period of 1956-1982, the mean value of runoff and sediment decreased by 29.10% and 29.45% in 1983-2010. When P is less than 90%, the annual flow and runoff keep decreasing, and when P exceeds 90%, the flow decreases and the sediment keeps increasing. The designed value of water and sediment should be corrected. In different periods the synchronous frequency of both rich and poor was greater than the frequency of rich-poor, and the probability of rich-poor was the smallest (0.35% and 1.10% respectively in different periods). In the period of 1983- 2010, the frequencies of different combinations become more even. The study can provide technical support for water and sediment disaster reduction and project management.

Key words: runoff-sediment relationship, the Jinghe River Basin, Copula function, probability of rich-poor encounter

中图分类号: 

  • P333.4