• 资源评价 •

### 气候波动和人类活动对滦河流域径流变化的定量影响分析

1. 1. 黄冈师范学院旅游文化与地理科学学院, 湖北黄冈438000;
2. 武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室, 武汉430072;
3. 水利部珠江水利委员会水文局, 广州510611
• 收稿日期:2014-03-03 修回日期:2014-07-18 出版日期:2015-04-20 发布日期:2015-04-16
• 作者简介:张利平(1971- ),男,湖北黄冈人,教授,博士生导师,主要从事水文水资源研究.E-mail:zhanglp@whu.edu.cn
• 基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(51339004,51279139).

### Quantitative Assessment of the Impact of Climate Variability and Human Activities on Runoff Change in the Luanhe River Catchment

ZHANG Li-ping1,2, LI Ling-cheng2, XIA Jun2, WANG Ren-chao3

1. 1. College of Tourism Culture and Geographical Science, Huanggang Normal University, Huanggang 438000, China;
2. State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China;
3. Bureau of Hydrology, Pearl River Water Resources Commission of the Ministry of Water Resources, Guangzhou 510611, China.
• Received:2014-03-03 Revised:2014-07-18 Online:2015-04-20 Published:2015-04-16

Abstract: The hydrological processes are largely influenced by climate variability and human activities, and the quantitative assessment of their impacts on runoff change is a hot issue in hydrological scientific research. With the quantitative assessment method of runoff change based on SWAT model, this study uses long hydro- climatic data of the Luanhe River Catchment to quantitatively assess the runoff's response to climate variability and human activities. By using Mann-Kendall method, the whole runoff time series were divided into three periods: baseline period, variability period I and II. Then the contribution rates of climate variability and human activities on runoff change in variability period I and II were analyzed with quantitative assessment method. The results show that there was a statistically significant decreasing trend of annual runoff during 1960-2010. Compared with the average annual runoff in baseline period, the average annual runoff in variability period I and II decreased 49.71% and 70.03%, respectively. So the impact of climate variability and human activities on the runoff became much stronger. And the human activities were the main factors for the runoff decrease. In variability period I, the contribution rates of human activities and climate change on runoff's decrease were -26.30% and -73.70%, respectively. While in variability period II the contribute rates of human activities and climate change on runoff decrease were -26.15% and -73.85%, respectively. As for the impact of land use change on the runoff, it reduced the runoff with the contribution rate of -19.65% in variability period I, while it increased the runoff with the contribution rate of 3.83% in variability period II.

• P333