自然资源学报

自然资源学报 ›› 2015, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (3): 502-512.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2015.03.013

• 资源研究方法 • 上一篇    下一篇

WWF水风险评估工具在中国的应用研究——以长江流域为例

魏娜1, 仇亚琴1,2, 甘泓1,2, 卢琼1,2, 刘佳嘉1, 甘永德1, 王春燕1, 刘妞1   

  1. 1. 中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室, 北京100038;
    2. 水利部水资源与水生态工程技术研究中心, 北京100044
  • 收稿日期:2014-03-17 修回日期:2014-07-22 发布日期:2015-03-23
  • 作者简介:魏娜(1987-),女,陕西富县人,博士,主要从事水资源与水环境综合管理方面研究.Email:844787598@qq.com
  • 基金资助:
    水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目“水资源红线管理基础和监测统计考核体系研究”(201301001);国家自然基金项目(51021066, 50939006, 51209224);流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室资助项目(2013ZY02,2013QN02).

Application of WWFWater Risk Assessment Tools in China —A Case Study in the Yangtze River Basin

WEI Na1, QIU Ya-qin1,2, GAN Hong1,2, LU Qiong1,2, LIU Jia-jia1, GAN Yong-de1, WANG Chun-yan1, LIU Niu1   

  1. 1.National Key Laboratory of Basin Water Cycle Simulation and Control, China Institute of Water& Resources Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China;
    2. Engineering and Technology Research Center for Water Resources and Hydroecology of the Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing 100044, China
  • Received:2014-03-17 Revised:2014-07-22 Published:2015-03-23

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摘要： 针对中国目前的水资源、水环境的现状以及流域水资源管理、信息统计等特点,将世界自然基金会(WWF)和德国投资与开发有限公司(DEG)提出的水风险评估指标做了本土化调整,建立了适应中国国情的流域水风险评估指标体系.采用5 级5 分制计算每个指标的评分值,对部分指标的权重和计算方法做了调整,并采用综合指数加权求和法计算综合评分值.选取长江流域及其所辖的7 个二级分区进行了水风险评价.结果表明,2010 年长江流域及其二级区的水风险评分值均在1.1~1.8 分之间,风险等级为Ⅱ级,属低风险区;各二级区的风险存在一定的差异,其中,太湖水系和汉江属Ⅱ级区中评分值较高的流域,嘉陵江的评分值最低;不同指标分类对流域水风险的贡献率不同:影响较大的是物理风险,贡献率在45%~60%左右;其次是监管风险,贡献率在21%~32%左右;最小是声誉风险,贡献率在25%以下.最后,结合我国水风险评估过程中出现的新问题,展望了本领域的发展趋势.

Abstract: According to the current situations of water resources, water environment, water resources management and information statistics in China, the paper readjusts the evaluation index system of water risk for river basin based on the evaluation index system of water risk presented by WWF and DEG, and makes it more suitable for the national condition of China. The indexes are graded by five-grade and five-score scale. Also, the weights and calculation methods of some indexes are adjusted. The weighted comprehensive index summation process is adopted to calculate the integrated evaluation score of basins. The comprehensive evaluation is conducted in the Yangtze River Basin and its seven secondary subareas. The results show that the risk scores of the Yangtze River Basin and its subareas in 2010 are between 1.1 and 1.8, and the risk grade is class Ⅱ, which means it is a low risk area. There are some differences among the scores of the secondary subareas. The scores of the Taihu Lake water system and the Hanjiang River are relatively high. The score of the Jialing River is the lowest. The contribution rates of the three categories of indexes to the water risk are different. The physical risk has a relatively higher influence on the water risk, its contribution rate being 45%-60%; the second one is the regulatory risk, and the contribution rate is 21%-32%; the reputational risk has a lower influence and the contribution rate is lower than 25%. Finally, the future research directions in the field of water risk evaluation are proposed based on the existing problems in the course of China water risk evaluation.

中图分类号: 

  • TV213.4