• 专家论坛 •

### 2050年中国能源消费的情景预测

1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京100101;
2. 中国科学院大学, 北京100049;
3. 中国地质大学(北京)人文经管学院, 北京100083
• 收稿日期:2014-09-18 修回日期:2015-01-20 出版日期:2015-03-20 发布日期:2015-03-20
• 通讯作者: 刘立涛(1984-),博士,助理研究员,主要从事能源经济与能源安全研究.E-mail:liult@igsnrr.ac.cn E-mail:liult@igsnrr.ac.cn
• 作者简介:沈镭(1964-),博士,研究员,主要从事能源和矿产资源经济与政策、区域可持续发展研究.E-mail:shenl@igsnrr.ac.cn
• 基金资助:

国家自然科学基金面上项目“气候变化条件下中国能源供给安全格局及其资源环境效应”(41271547),“基于资源账户的中国石油资源流动过程及资源环境效应研究”(41271546),“中国城镇化进程中水泥生产的能源消耗与减排路径优化”(41401644),“基于物质流分析的中国石油资源流动过程及碳效应研究”(41101116).

### 2050 Energy Consumption Projection for China

SHEN Lei1, LIU Li-tao1, WANG Li-mao1, CHEN Feng-nan1,2, ZHANG Chao1,2, SHEN Ming1,2, ZHONG Shuai1,3

1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101;
2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
• Received:2014-09-18 Revised:2015-01-20 Online:2015-03-20 Published:2015-03-20

Abstract:

As fossil fuels consumption and global warming are closely associated with each other, energy consumption has attracted great attention around the world. Especially when China overtook the U.S. as the world's biggest energy consumer in 2010, the time and value for China's peak energy consumption become the focus of world attention. Based on a brief review of existing peak energy consumption methods and models, population and economic development selected as two major driving factors, and using the variation rule of per capita energy consumption during economic development in developed countries as reference, the future energy consumption for China was projected up to 2050. The results showed that: 1) China has great potential to increase per capita energy consumption and the cumulative per capita energy consumption. The probable per capita energy consumption range for China is 4.75-9.31 tce/cap in 2050, the upper limit equivalent to only 76% of the United States' per capita consumption peaks. And the probable energy consumption range for China is 6.19-12.13 billion tce in 2050. While the probable range of cumulative per capita energy consumption for China for 1870-2050 is 207-294 tce,the upper limit equivalent to only 46% of the United States' (56% of Germany and 57% of United Kingdom) cumulative per capita consumption during 1870-2012. 2) Currently, most studies showed that the probable energy consumption peak range for China will be in 2035-2040, with the peak value range of 6.2-7.9 billion tce. This paper argues that in addition to the United States, United Kingdom and Germany Scenarios, the other national scenarios will be unlikely peaked. 3) Under France Scenario the “zero” growth of China's energy consumption will occur around 2040, while Japan, South Korea and Baseline scenarios project that a slow growth period of China's energy consumption will occur after 2035, with growth rate about 2%. To sum up, France, Japan and South Korea scenarios are more reasonable and China's energy consumption is likely to enter a slow growth period since 2035. At present, the level of GDP per capita in China is not high, and the level of per capita energy consumption especially for cumulative per capita energy consumption is low, so it would put ourselves in a passive position in climate change negotiations if we are too optimistic about China's peak energy consumption time and value. Based on national conditions of China, we need to leave more energy consumption space for China's social economic development. Last but not least, actively promoting energy-efficient production and adopting an energy-efficient lifestyle will be the key for China's sustainable socio-economic development, energy security and respondence to global climate change.

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