自然资源学报 ›› 2015, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (1): 115-123.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2015.01.010

• 资源评价 • 上一篇    下一篇

泾惠渠灌区潜在蒸散发量的敏感性及变化成因

粟晓玲, 宋悦, 牛纪苹, 钟锋   

  1. 西北农林科技大学水利与建筑工程学院, 陕西杨凌712100
  • 收稿日期:2013-12-31 修回日期:2014-04-16 出版日期:2015-01-20 发布日期:2015-01-20
  • 作者简介:粟晓玲(1968-),女,四川开江县人,教授,博士,主要从事水资源规划与管理研究.Email:suxiaoling17@126.com
  • 基金资助:
    水利公益性行业科研专项(201301016);国家自然科学基金(51279166);西北林科技大学中央高校基本科研业务费科技创新重点项目(QN201168).

Sensitivity and Attribution of Potential Evapotranspiration in Jinghuiqu Irrigation District

SU Xiao-ling, SONG Yue, NIU Ji-ping, ZHONG Feng   

  1. College ofWater Resources and Architectural Engineering, Northwest A & F University, Yangling 712100, China
  • Received:2013-12-31 Revised:2014-04-16 Online:2015-01-20 Published:2015-01-20

摘要: 潜在蒸散发量(ET0)是计算作物需水量的关键因子和制定灌溉制度的依据,敏感性分析对评估气候变化对ET0的影响至关重要.根据泾惠渠灌区4 个气象站1961—2011 年逐日气象资料,采用Penman-Monteith 公式计算日ET0,应用Mann-Kendall 趋势检验方法研究气象因子变化趋势,采用无量纲的相对敏感系数分析ET0对4 个主要气象因子的敏感性,结合气象因子的多年变化定量分析ET0的变化成因.结果表明,泾惠渠灌区风速和日照时数呈显著下降趋势,气温呈显著上升趋势,相对湿度在南部和东南部呈显著下降趋势,而西部和东北部呈不显著的上升趋势,ET0呈显著下降趋势;ET0对相对湿度、太阳辐射、风速和气温的敏感系数分别为-0.77、0.41、0.16 和0.08;风速和太阳辐射的显著下降是灌区ET0下降的主要原因.

Abstract: Potential evapotranspiration (ET0) is a key to estimate crop water requirements and base to make irrigation schedule. Sensitivity analysis is crucial in assessing the impact of climatic variables on ET0 estimations. In this study, observed daily climatic data from 1961 to 2011 at four meteorological stations located in Jinghuiqu Irrigation District were used. Daily ET0 was estimated with the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith equation. The trends in climate variables were detected by using Mann-Kendall test. A non- dimensional relative sensitivity coefficient was employed to predict responses of ET0 to four climatic variables. Sensitivity and relative variation rate of climate variables were used to attribute ET0 variation. The results showed that statistically significant decreasing trends in wind and daily sunshine duration and significant increasing trends in air temperature were observed. Relative humidity has a significant decreasing trend in the southern and southeastern irrigation districts and an insignificant increasing trend in the western and northeastern irrigation districts. Mean daily sensitivity coefficients for relative humidity, solar radiation, wind speed and air temperature in the district were -0.77, 0.41, 0.16 and 0.08, respectively. In general, relative humidity was the most sensitive variable, followed by solar radiation, wind speed and air temperature. The change of ET0 is primarily attributed to the significant decrease of wind and solar radiation.

中图分类号: 

  • P426.2