• 资源评价 •

1949-2013年中国气象灾害灾情变化趋势分析

1. 1. 北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室, 北京100875;
2. 民政部/教育部减灾与应急管理研究院, 北京100875;
3. 北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室, 北京100875
• 收稿日期:2014-03-27 修回日期:2014-05-04 出版日期:2014-09-20 发布日期:2014-09-20
• 作者简介:吴吉东（1981-），男，博士，讲师，主要从事灾害经济学、自然灾害风险管理研究。E-mail：wujidong@bnu.edu.cn
• 基金资助:
国家重大科学研究计划项目（2012CB955402）；国家自然科学基金项目（41101506）；教育部-国家外国专家局高等学校创新引智计划（B08008）。

Meteorological Disaster Trend Analysis in China：1949-2013

WU Ji-dong1,2, FU Yu2, ZHANG Jie2, LI Ning2,3

1. 1. Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, MOE, Beijing Normal University, Beijing100875, China;
2. Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, MCA & MOE, Beijing 100875, China;
3. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
• Received:2014-03-27 Revised:2014-05-04 Online:2014-09-20 Published:2014-09-20

Abstract: Global warming and urbanization change both the intensity and frequency of extremeevents and the exposure of meteorological disasters, these changes have made it morecomplex for the meteorological disaster risk management, which make it a priority for eachcountry to respond to climate change. Meteorological disaster trend analysis is essential for disasterprevention and mitigation planning, and also for climate change adaptation. From two dimensionsof meteorological disaster, i.e., disaster losses and frequency, this paper uses two keyindicators, i.e., deaths and direct economic losses, both in absolute value and in relative value,to analyze the meteorological disaster trend and variation for the last 65 years (between 1949and 2013) in China. An analysis of 1949-2013 meteorological disaster data reveals several results.First, more than 1.55 million people died, both the mortality and the death rate (deathsper million people) show a significant decline, annual average deaths decreased gradually frommore than 10 thousand people in the 1950s and the 1960s to about 1 thousand people since the21st century. Second, overall economic damages amounting to 12 trillion yuan (adjusted to2013 prices), the absolute direct loss shows a uptrend, annual mean direct loss has increasedfrom less than 100 billion yuan in the 1950s to more than 300 billion yuan since the 21st century;while economic losses expressed as a proportion of gross domestic product (GDP) has adownward trend, direct loss rate amounted to over 15% in the 1950s and then dropped toaround 1% since the 21st century. Finally, over the last two decades (1994-2013), meteorologicaldisasters accounted for 55% of the deaths and 87% of the direct economic losses caused bynatural hazards, if weather-related secondary geological disasters, i.e., landslides and debrisflows, are concerned, these figure will increase to 81% for deaths and to 89% for economiclosses. Floods, storms, droughts and precipitation-induced secondary geological disasters arethe major cause for loss of life and economic damage in China, and this effect is on the rise.

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