自然资源学报 ›› 2014, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (7): 1185-1195.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2014.07.009

• 资源评价 • 上一篇    下一篇

东北地区采暖气候条件变化特征及预测

陈莉1, 李帅2, 覃雪1, 张洪梅1, 张洪杰1   

  1. 1. 哈尔滨市气象局, 哈尔滨150028;
    2. 黑龙江省气象科学研究所, 哈尔滨150030
  • 收稿日期:2013-04-26 修回日期:2013-11-08 出版日期:2014-07-20 发布日期:2014-07-20
  • 通讯作者: 李帅(1972-),男,辽宁沈阳人,高级工程师,硕士,从事应用气象研究。E-mail:hlj_lishuai@163.com E-mail:hlj_lishuai@163.com
  • 作者简介:陈莉(1972-),女,吉林扶余人,正研级高级工程师,博士,从事气候与气候变化研究。E-mail:climate_chenli@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201314)。

Change Characteristics and Prediction of Climatic Conditions of Heating in Northeast China

CHEN Li1, LI Shuai2, QIN Xue1, ZHANG Hong-mei1, ZHANG Hong-jie1   

  1. 1. Harbin Meteorological Bureau, Harbin 150028, China;
    2. Heilongjiang Research Institute of Meteorological Science, Harbin 150030, China
  • Received:2013-04-26 Revised:2013-11-08 Online:2014-07-20 Published:2014-07-20

摘要:

东北地区是我国采暖期最长、采暖需求最高的地区。冬季供暖耗能的多少主要取决于室外温度。论文利用1957-2011 年东北地区88 个气象台站的逐日平均气温资料,采用趋势系数、变化速率、Mann-Kendall 突变分析、一元线性回归等方法,对东北全区、北区和南区的采暖气候条件进行了分析。得出:东北全区采暖期平均气温为-8.2℃,54 a 来的变化速率为0.17℃/10 a,升温趋势通过了0.05 显著性检验,在1982-1983 年发生了突变;采暖期天数平均为186 d,变化速率为-2.0 d/10 a,通过了0.001 显著性检验,在1990 年发生了突变;采暖强度平均为4 959℃·d,采暖耗能变化率为-17.7%/10 a,通过了0.001 显著性检验,在1980 年代中期发生了突变。东北地区采暖期平均气温升高1℃,采暖强度将减少210℃·d,采暖耗能将减少4.4%。另外,论文根据前期环流指数构建了采暖强度预测模型。

关键词: 东北, 采暖期平均气温, 采暖强度, 气候变化特征, 采暖耗能变化率, 采暖天数

Abstract:

Northeast China is so cold in winter that it is defined severe cool region based on the regulations of"Thermal Design Rules for Civil Building (GB50176-93)". With the highest heating intensity and the longest heating days in China,the energy requirement for heating in Northeast China is the strongest. The amount of energy for heating depends on the air temperature. Analysis of change characteristics of climatic conditions of heating in Northeast China is urgent, because the climate change affects the energy usage. According to the regulation of "Code for Design of Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning (GB50019-2003)", a 5-day running mean method is used to determine the start and end date for heating. The degree day method is used to calculate the heating intensity, with the indoor base temperature of 18℃ as a standard according to"Energy Conservation Design Standard for New Heating Residential Buildings (JCJ26-95)". Changing rate of energy consuming for heating is calculated too. Based on the data of daily average temperature of 88 weather stations in Northeast China from 1957 to 2011 and statistics methods of trend coefficient, increasing/decreasing ratio, Mann-Kendall abrupt analysis and a linear regression, this article analyzes change characteristics of the air temperature during the heating period, the heating days and the heating intensity from 1957 to 2011 in Northeast China. Conclusions are as follows. The mean value of average temperature during heating period from 1957 to 2011 is -8.2℃. The average temperature during heating period increases obviously in Northeast China, with the ratio reaching 0.17℃/10 a and its abrupt year is 1982-1983. The mean value of heating days from 1957 to 2011 is 186 d. The heating days decrease obviously in Northeast China, with the ratio reaching -2 d/10 a and its abrupt point is the year of 1990. The mean value of heating intensity from 1957 to 2011 is 4959℃·d. The heating intensity decreases obviously in Northeast China, with the changing ratio of energy consuming for heating reaching -17.7%/10 a and its abrupt year is the mid 1980s. Based on the method of a linear regression, the heating intensity could fall 210℃·d and the changing ratio of energy for heating could decrease by 4.4% when the average temperature during the heating period increases by 1℃. In addition, a forecast model is built by using the circulation index.

Key words: Northeast China, heating days, changing rate of energy consuming for heating, change characteristic, heating intensity, average temperature during the heating period

中图分类号: 

  • P467