淮河流域粮食生产与化肥消费时空变化及对水环境影响

doi:10.11849/zrzyxb.2014.06.013

自然资源学报 ›› 2014, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (6): 1053-1064.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2014.06.013

淮河流域粮食生产与化肥消费时空变化及对水环境影响

周亮¹, 徐建刚², 蔡北溟³, 蒋金亮¹, 孙东琪¹

1. 南京大学地理与海洋科学学院, 南京 210093;
2. 南京大学建筑与城市规划学院, 南京 210093;
3. 南京大学污染控制与资源化研究国家重点实验室, 南京大学环境学院, 南京 210023

收稿日期:2012-12-20 修回日期:2013-05-29 发布日期:2014-06-24
通讯作者: 徐建刚，E-mail：xjg129@sina.com E-mail:xjg129@sina.com
作者简介:周亮（1983-），男，博士研究生，主要从事经济地理、城市与区域规划方面研究，E-mail：zhougeo@126.com
基金资助:
南京大学研究生科研创新基金（2013CL07）；国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项（2009ZX07210-010-001）；江苏研究生创新计划（CXLX13_033）

The Spatio-temporal Changes of Grain Production and Fertilizer Consumption and Its Impact on Water Environment in the Huaihe River Basin

ZHOU Lianga¹, XU Jian-gangb², CAI Bei-ming³, JIANG Jin-linga¹, SUN Dong-qia¹

1. School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China;
2. School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China;
3. State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China

Received:2012-12-20 Revised:2013-05-29 Published:2014-06-24

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

以淮河流域172 个县为研究单元，基于1990、1995、2000、2005 和2010 年分县粮食、化肥及2010 年水环境数据，采用ESDA模型、重力模型、回归分析和GIS 空间技术方法，分别对流域粮食生产与化肥消费的空间集聚程度及重心进行测定，在此基础上分析了流域粮食生产与化肥消费的动态时空变化规律、耦合关系及其对流域水环境影响。结果表明：①粮食生产与化肥消费的“高-高”和“低-低”集聚区存在显著空间正相关，空间聚集特征明显，“高-高”类型区主要集中分布在流域下游的苏北平原和皖北平原，“低-低”类型区主要集中分布在流域上游的伏牛山、桐柏山和沂蒙等山区；②重心分析表明，20 a 来粮食生产和化肥消费的重心逐步由流域东北向西南方向移动，分别移动了29.51 km和34.97 km，两者重心之间距离呈现近似“W”的“先减后增再减再增”徘徊特点；③流域粮食生产与化肥消费的“高-高”和“低-低”集聚区在流域空间位置上高度耦合，呈现增减协同的时空演进格局，且两者重心时空演变轨迹具有同向性，空间耦合特征显著；④回归分析表明化肥消费是流域水环境污染的主要贡献因子和污染来源，也表明流域粮食生产过程中环境成本较大，呈外部不经济效应。

关键词: 粮食生产, 水环境, 淮河流域, 化肥消费

Abstract:

Taking 172 counties of the Huaihe River Basin as research unit, using each county's grain and fertilizer data in 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2010 and water environment data in 2010, and based on ESDA model, gravity model, regression analysis model and GIS spatial technology method, this article measures degree of spatial concentration and the center of gravity of the watershed grain production and fertilizer consumption respectively, and on this basis, it further analyzes the temporal and spatial dynamic variation and coupled relationship of the basin food production and fertilizer consumption and its impact on the basin water environment. The results show that: 1) The "H-H" and "L-L" gathering areas of grain production and fertilizer consumption show significantly positive spatial autocorrelation and obvious characteristics of spatial aggregation. The "H-H" type areas are mainly distributed in the Northern Jiangsu Plain and the North of Anhui Plain at downstream of the basin. The "L-L" type areas are mainly distributed in the Funiu Mountain, Tongbai Mountain, and Yimeng Mountain at upstream of the basin. 2) The center of gravity analysis shows that the center of gravity of food production and fertilizer consumption moved gradually from the northeast to the southwest of the basin in the past 20 years, moving 29.51 km and 34.97 km respectively. Both distances of the center presents approximately the "W-shaped" pattern, the hovering characteristics of first decreasing and then increasing, further reducing and then increasing. 3) The "H-H" and "L-L" gathering areas of the basin grain production and fertilizer consumption are highly coupled in spatial location, presenting the temporal and spatial evolution pattern of increase and decrease collaboration. Both the evolution trajectory of the centers has the same direction, and the characteristics of spatial coupling are significant. 4) Regression analysis shows that fertilizer consumption is the main contribution factor and pollution source of the basin's environmental pollution, also indicates that the environmental cost in the basin food production process is comparatively large, showing the external diseconomies effect.

Key words: fertilizer consumption, Huaihe River Basin, water environment, food production

中图分类号:

S143

周亮, 徐建刚, 蔡北溟, 蒋金亮, 孙东琪. 淮河流域粮食生产与化肥消费时空变化及对水环境影响[J]. 自然资源学报, 2014, 29(6): 1053-1064.

ZHOU Lianga, XU Jian-gangb, CAI Bei-ming, JIANG Jin-linga, SUN Dong-qia. The Spatio-temporal Changes of Grain Production and Fertilizer Consumption and Its Impact on Water Environment in the Huaihe River Basin[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2014, 29(6): 1053-1064.

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淮河流域粮食生产与化肥消费时空变化及对水环境影响

The Spatio-temporal Changes of Grain Production and Fertilizer Consumption and Its Impact on Water Environment in the Huaihe River Basin

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