自然资源学报 ›› 2014, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (5): 769-778.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2014.05.004

• 资源利用与管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

最终需求拉动下的中国碳排放研究

董文超, 赵健艾, 张泽宜   

  1. 北京大学深圳研究生院环境与能源学院, 深圳518055
  • 收稿日期:2013-04-15 修回日期:2013-08-10 出版日期:2014-05-20 发布日期:2014-05-20
  • 作者简介:董文超(1988-),男,江西景德镇人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为环境金融。E-mail:zephyr@sz.pku.edu.cn

China’s Carbon Emissions Embodied in Final Demands Items

DONG Wen-chao, ZHAO Jian-ai, ZHANG Ze-yi   

  1. School of Environment and Energy, Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School, Shenzhen 518055, China
  • Received:2013-04-15 Revised:2013-08-10 Online:2014-05-20 Published:2014-05-20
  • About author:10.11849/zrzyxb.2014.05.004

摘要: 论文从中国GDP的构成入手,运用投入产出法,研究CO2排放量增长的经济拉动因素,分析不同的经济因素对中国CO2排放量增长的拉动贡献。得出以下几个结论:①居民消费和投资是拉动中国CO2排放量持续增长的两大助推器,且鉴于中国未来经济的发展态势,预计未来由居民消费和投资拉动的CO2排放量比重会呈缓慢上升趋势;②消费中各产品部门的CO2排放量较为分散,但以石油天然气开采业为代表的其他行业及机械、电气、电子设备制造业、电力、蒸汽、热水生产和供应业等比例相对较重;③政府消费拉动的CO2排放量份额较小,且其贡献比例呈现逐渐下降的趋势;④进出口对CO2排放量有相反的效应,且在未来,中国可能出现进出口拉动的净CO2排放量逐渐增加的态势。

Abstract: In this paper, from the composition of China's GDP, we use input-output method to analyze the growth of CO2 emissions and the economic pull factors of the growth of China's CO2 emissions. Through the analysis, we get some conclusions: 1) Consumer and investment constitute the two major drivers of China's CO2 emissions. Their contribution has been more than 84.5% of the proportion of China's total CO2 emissions. And in view of China's future economic development trend, it is expected that the consumer and investmentled proportion of CO2 emissions will be increased gradually. 2) CO2 emissions from different sectors of household consumption are more dispersed, but the proportion of oil, gas, mining industry and textile and garments, leather down and its products industry is relatively higher. 3) CO2 emissions of government purchases account for relatively small share. And its proportion declined from 14.61% to 5.39% during 1992-2007 which showed an apparently gradual downward trend. 4) Import and export have the opposite effect on CO2 emissions. In the foreseeable future, the upward trend of China's total CO2 emissions is irreversible. And in the future, the net CO2 emissions of China from import and export may face an increasing trend.

中图分类号: 

  • F062.1