自然资源学报 ›› 2014, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (4): 709-718.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2014.04.015

• 资源研究方法 • 上一篇    下一篇

人水系统的自组织演化模拟与实证

刘海猛1, 石培基1, 杨雪梅2, 张胜武3, 韩梅芳4, 陈莉1   

  1. 1. 西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院, 兰州730070;
    2. 兰州大学资源环境学院, 兰州730000;
    3. 安徽财经大学工商管理学院, 安徽蚌埠233041;
    4. 华东师范大学资源与环境科学学院, 上海200241
  • 收稿日期:2013-03-18 修回日期:2013-05-28 出版日期:2014-04-20 发布日期:2014-04-20
  • 作者简介:刘海猛(1989-),男,山东淄博人,硕士研究生,主要研究资源环境与区域发展。E-mail:smartjingfeng@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目(41271133,41261104);国家社科基金青年项目(12CTJ001)。

Self-organization Evolution Simulation and Empirical Study of Human-water System

LIU Hai-meng1, SHI Pei-ji1, YANG Xue-mei2, ZHANG Sheng-wu3, HAN Mei-fang4, CHEN Li1   

  1. 1. College of Geography and Environmental Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China;
    2. College of Earth and Environmental Science, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China;
    3. School of Business Administration, Anhui University of Finance & Economics, Bengbu 233041, China;
    4. College of Resources and Environmental Science, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
  • Received:2013-03-18 Revised:2013-05-28 Online:2014-04-20 Published:2014-04-20
  • Contact: 石培基(1961-),男,甘肃临洮人,教授,博士生导师。E-mail:xbsdspj@163.com E-mail:xbsdspj@163.com
  • About author:10.11849/zrzyxb.2014.04.015

摘要:

人水系统是一个开放的复杂巨系统,研究其自组织演化过程对促进区域人水和谐和可持续发展具有重要意义。论文在辨析人水系统基本内涵的基础上提出了其概念模型,基于自组织理论分析了人水系统的演化具有开放性、涨落、非线性、反馈、不稳定性和支配性等特点。在此基础上借鉴协同学、耗散结构论等将序参量判据和熵判据结合,构建了人水系统的自组织演化模型,并应用到人水矛盾突出的石羊河流域。案例分析表明:石羊河流域人水系统的社会经济、生态环境和资源开发利用三个子系统在2001—2011 年的协同度总体呈“S”型上升趋势,具体演化路径略有不同;人水系统的整体演化以2006 年为涨落点,在政策驱动下,系统不断输入负熵,由混乱无序向协调有序的良性发展方向演化,开始趋向新的稳态,结果验证了模型应用的可行性。

关键词: 人水系统, 石羊河流域, 自组织理论

Abstract:

Water resources for domestic, agricultural and industrial use is an increasingly important topic of the human on the planet, and the relationship of water and human has become the hot spot of the current study. Human-water system is an open complex giant system, which contains socio-economic subsystem, eco-environment subsystem and resource subsystem. As one important part of man-earth areal system, its ultimate goal is to achieve the human-water harmony. And the study of its self-organization evolution is of great significance in promoting human and water in harmoneous sustainable development. This study presents the mathematical concept model of human-water system after discriminating its basic connotation. The evolution characteristics of the human-water system are opening, fluctuating, nonlinearity, feedback, instability and domination, which are summarized based on self-organization theory in detail. On this basis, drawing on the experience of synergetics and dissipative structure theory, this study develops self-organization evolution simulation of human-water system applying order parameter criteria and entropy criteria, and puts it in use in Shiyang River Basin. Case analysis shows that, the synergy degree of socio-economic subsystem, eco-environment subsystem and resource subsystem rises in an "S-shaped" pattern in Shiyang River Basin in 2001-2011, and there are slightly different for each subsystem. The evolutions of synergy degree match with the change of socio-economic development and policy planning of Shiyang River Basin. The order degree of human-water system is 0.2 below the level in the years 2001-2005, which indicates the human-water system of Shiyang River Basin is in chaos within a state of entropy production, and the competition between three subsystem is greater than the cooperation. The year 2006 is the fluctuation point of human-water system, the condition changed from chaos to coordinative and orderly, and the whole system began to tend to a new steady state. This transformation is owed to the progressive governance of the local government, which inputs negentropy to the system. Results also show that the self-organization evolution simulation of human-water system is effective and feasible, and provides references for further study.

Key words: Shiyang River Basin, human-water system, self-organization theory

中图分类号: 

  • TV213.4