自然资源学报

自然资源学报 ›› 2014, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (1): 80-90.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2014.01.008

• 资源评价 • 上一篇    下一篇

近50a来珠江流域降水变化趋势分析

陆文秀1,2, 刘丙军*1,2, 陈俊凡1,2, 陈晓宏1,2   

  1. 1. 中山大学地理科学与规划学院水资源与环境系, 广州 510275;
    2. 华南地区水循环与水安全广东省普通高校重点实验室, 广州 510275
  • 收稿日期:2012-07-28 修回日期:2013-05-18 出版日期:2014-01-20 发布日期:2014-01-09
  • 作者简介:陆文秀（1986- ），女，山西朔州人，硕士研究生，主要从事水循环演变分析。E-mail：woniuhappy@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(50909106，51009156)；教育部青年教师培育项目(3161399)；广东省科技计划项目(2011B030800008)

Variation Trend of Precipitation in the Pearl River Basin in Recent 50 Years

LU Wen-xiu1,2, LIU Bing-jun*1,2, CHEN Jun-fan1,2, CHEN Xiao-hong1,2   

  1. 1. Department of Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China;
    2. Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security in Southern China of Guangdong High Education Institute, Guangzhou 510275, China
  • Received:2012-07-28 Revised:2013-05-18 Online:2014-01-20 Published:2014-01-09
  • Contact: 刘丙军（1976- ），男，湖南益阳人，副教授，博士，从事水资源系统分析研究。E-mail： liubj@mail.sysu.edu.cn E-mail:liubj@mail.sysu.edu.cn

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35

摘要： 全球气候变化和人类活动影响下，近年来珠江流域降水时空分布变化显著。论文利用珠江流域62 个站点1959—2009 年逐日降水序列，选取Mann-Kendall 统计检验方法和有序聚类法，研究了该流域16 个降水特征指数的趋势变化和变异特征，得到如下结论：①流域全年、春季、冬季降水量呈微弱上升趋势，秋季降水量为稳定下降趋势，夏季降水量无明显变化趋势。夏季降水变化趋势对全年降水变化趋势的空间分布影响最大，春秋次之，冬季最小；②流域春、冬两季降水占全年降水比例呈上升趋势，夏、秋两季降水占全年降水比例呈下降趋势；③流域全年降水日数和小雨日数呈显著下降趋势，中雨日数没有明显变化趋势，大雨、暴雨日数和95 百分位值降水日数均呈上升趋势。全年、小雨和暴雨降水日数显著突变时段发生在20 世纪90 年代初；④流域日平均降水量呈稳定上升趋势，降水时段趋于集中化。

关键词: Mann-Kendall, 降水, 珠江流域

Abstract: Influenced by intensifying human activities and constant changes of global climate, hydrological factors of the Pearl River Basin have been changed significantly. By using the Mann-Kendall trend test method and the sequential cluster analysis, this paper systematically analyzed the trends and mutation of the 16 precipitation indices in the Pearl River Basin. Results indicate that: 1) In the Pearl River Basin, the annual total precipitation, the total precipitations in spring and winter increase faintly, while the precipitation amount in autumn shows a stable decreasing trend. Besides, the precipitation amount in summer does not indicate a significant changing tendency. Meanwhile, the trends of precipitation amount in summer have the greatest impacts on the spatial distribution of the annual total precipitation variations. Additionally, the precipitation amount trend in spring takes the second place, which followed by the precipitation amount trends in autumn and winter. 2) There is a slight increase in the proportions of spring and winter precipitation to annual precipitation, while decreasing trends are found in the proportions of summer and autumn precipitation to annual precipitation in the Pearl River Basin. 3) In the Pearl River Basin, the total numbers of annual rainy days and light rainy days are decreasing significantly, however, the downfall days, torrential rainy days and the 95% percentile of the rainy days distributions tend to increase. Moreover, the significant tendency of light rainy days, torrential rainy days and the 95% percentile of the rainy days distributions have mutations in the early 1990s. 4) In the Pearl River Basin, the mean daily precipitation intensity is increasing stably, and precipitation period is centralizing, which can easily trigger occurrence of floods and droughts.

Key words: precipitation, the Pearl River Basin, Mann-Kendall

中图分类号: 

  • P426.6