• 资源经济 •

### 中国经济发展与水资源利用脱钩态势评价与展望

1. 北方工业大学经济管理学院, 北京 100144
• 收稿日期:2012-08-15 修回日期:2013-08-20 出版日期:2014-01-20 发布日期:2014-01-09
• 作者简介:吴丹（1986-），男，江西抚州人，助理研究员，博士，主要研究水政策与管理、战略与规划管理。E-mail：wu_daniel@163.com
• 基金资助:
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(13YJCZH195)

### Evaluation and Prospect on the Decoupling Trend of Economic Development and Water Resource Utilization in China

WU Dan

1. School of Economics and Management, North China University of Technology, Beijing 100144, China
• Received:2012-08-15 Revised:2013-08-20 Online:2014-01-20 Published:2014-01-09

Abstract: According to the literature research and data collection at home and abroad, the research summary of the decoupling theory and its application in the water resource management is analyzed. Referring to the OECD's system index of the decoupling methodology, the decoupling state between economic development and utilization of water resources in China is given, the system evaluation index of economic development and water resource utilization in China is built, to classify rationally the decoupling status of economic development and water resource utilization, and the decoupling model of economic development and water resource utilization is provided to analyze the decoupling state between economic development and utilization of water resources in China in 1953-2010. Then, the changing state of the amount of water resources and proportions of water consumption for different industries are analyzed comprehensively for the same period, based on the analysis on the decoupling trend of economic development and water resource utilization in China, according to the changing tendency of the population carrying capacities and water consumption after liberation, the decoupling mechanism of economic development and water resource utilization is discussed and analyzed further. The results show, the growth rate of water consumption in different industries is generally in a downward trend after liberation. The growth rate of water consumption is affected by different sectors of agriculture, industry, and domestic water consumption simultaneously. The dependent degree of agricultural water to agricultural development is obviously declining, the dependent degree of industrial water to industrial development is also obviously declining, and the use efficiency of domestic water is obviously increasing. According to the changing trend of water resource utilization, the water demand forecasting of general development with Logistic model is presented, and the changing state of the utilization of water resources with Logistic model in 1998-2030 is given, then, the results of water demand is modified combined with national development planning, and finally, water demand in 2015, 2020 and 2030 is predicted. The results show, the decoupling trend of economic development and water resource utilization in China is still weak, the growth rate of the water demand will decrease acceleratedly in further 10 years with national development planning and government macro-control and market regulation. The feasibility analysis of the decoupling of water resource utilization is carried out, from the angles of socio-politics and economic-technology. The results show, with the gradual improvement of water use efficiency, the growth rate of water demand will be acceleratedly declining in 2011-2020, the amount of water demand is 6282×108-6331.4×108m3 in 2015, 6614×108-6675×108m3 in 2020 and 6678.3×108-6773×108m3 in 2030. The decoupling trend economic development and water resource utilization will be strong absolutely in 2020, and the stage of water consumption will get into the decreased period, then the decoupling status of economic development and water resource utilization will be realized.

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