自然资源学报

自然资源学报 ›› 2013, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (11): 1911-1921.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2013.11.008

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北京潜在蒸散发量年内-年际的气候变化特征及成因辨识

赵玲玲1,2, 夏军2 4, 王中根2, 李宗礼3   

  1. 1. 广州地理研究所, 广州 510070;
    2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京 100101;
    3. 水利部水利水电规划设计总院, 北京 100120;
    4. 武汉大学水资源与水利水电工程国家重点实验室, 武汉 430072
  • 收稿日期:2012-05-21 修回日期:2013-04-11 出版日期:2013-11-20 发布日期:2013-11-20
  • 作者简介:赵玲玲(1980-),女,河南濮阳市人,博士,主要从事流域水文循环模拟研究。E-mail:linglingzhao@foxmail.com
  • 基金资助:
    广州地理研究所创新人才基金;中国科学院-澳大利亚联邦科工组织战略合作项目(CJHZ1223)。

The Inter-Intra Annual Climatic Pattern of Potential Evaporation in Beijing and Attribution

ZHAO Ling-ling1,2, XIA Jun2 4, WANG Zhong-gen2, LI Zong-li3   

  1. 1. Guangzhou Institute of Geography, Guangzhou 510070, China;
    2. Key Laboratory of Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Science and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    3. Water Resources and Hydropower Planning and Design General Institute, Beijing 100120, China;
    4. The State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
  • Received:2012-05-21 Revised:2013-04-11 Online:2013-11-20 Published:2013-11-20
  • Contact: 夏军

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9 | 7

摘要： 论文基于北京站1951—2009 年的气象资料,采用Penman-Monteith 公式估算潜在蒸散发,并对其年际年内的变化特征进行辨析。结果表明:北京1951—2009 年年均潜在蒸散发量呈显著上升趋势;气象要素的敏感性从强到弱依次为:空气相对湿度、温度、太阳辐射和风速;论文提出实测变幅均值法,基于此方法考虑气象要素年内变化特征,估算温度、饱和差、风速和太阳辐射的贡献率分别为13%、58%、17%和11%;对气象因子的年际变化趋势进行分析,平均气温在0.05 显著水平下增加趋势显著,太阳辐射和空气相对湿度在0.05 显著水平下减少趋势显著,风速变化趋势没有通过显著性检验;综合考虑年际变化和敏感性的去趋势分析显示:温度增加和空气相对湿度减少是造成潜在蒸散发增加的主要原因,太阳辐射的减少使得其增加趋势有所减弱,但未改变其增加趋势。

关键词: 潜在蒸散发量, 敏感系数, 北京, 水文水资源, Penman-Monteith

Abstract: Based on the metrological data in Beijing station during 1951-2009, this paper firstly uses the Penman-Monteith formula to estimate the potential evaporation. Then the climatic character istics in inter-and intra-annual potential evaporation are analyzed. The results show that at 95% confidence level, the trend in annual potential evaporation during 1951-2009 increases significantly. The trends of relativity humidity and solar radiation decrease, temperature increases, and wind speed shows no trend in Beijing station. The sensitivity to potential evaporation (ET0) from strong to weak is relativie humidity, temperature, solar radiation and wind speed. Considering the fluctuation variation pattern of climatic variables, the contribution of temperature, VDP, wind speed and solar radiation is 13%, 58%, 17% and 11% respectively. This suggests the fluctuation of climatic variables have great effect on the change pattern of ET0, especially the wind speed. In order to detect how climatic variables affect ET0, this paper uses the detrend method considering the inter-annual change pattern combined with sensitivity of climatic variables. The detrend analysis demonstrate that the increasing temperature and decreasing relativie humidity are the main cause for increasing potential evaporation. As to the decreasing shortwave radiation, the ET0 slightly decreases, but no change in its increasing trend.

Key words: hydrology and water resources, potential evaporation, Beijing, Penman-Monteith method, sensitivity coefficient

中图分类号: 

  • P332.2