水环境承载力约束下的城市经济规模量化研究

doi:10.11849/zrzyxb.2013.11.007

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 论文提出了以地区生产总值(GDP) 表征的水环境承载力定量计算模型,以扬州市为例,选取COD作为污染控制因子,进行实例计算。通过对模型参数的灵敏度分析,确定不同参数影响程度,找出影响水环境承载力的主要制约因子;采用区间估计理论,评估模型计算结果的可靠性;提出对于确定的经济发展目标,排放强度控制线模型。结果表明,考虑污染减排政策干预的因素,扬州市目标年水环境承载力(以GDP 表征) 可达8 372×10⁸元,在90%的置信度水平上,其置信区间为7 881×10⁸~9 030×10⁸元;在总量控制目标确定的条件下,水环境承载力主要制约因子为污染物排放强度和第三产业比例;如果该区域经济目标定为5 070×10⁸元,则单位工业增加值COD排放强度不得大于0.69 kg/10⁴元。

关键词: 水环境承载力, 可持续发展, 环境科学, 排放强度

Abstract: Environmental carrying capacity is an important constraint to regional sustainable development. It is the thresholds of the population size and economic scale that make the system of a regional environment support. In this article, a new method is proposed to study the threshold of urban economic scale constrained by water environmental carrying capacity. Regional water environmental carrying capacity can be quantitatively represented by the value of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), if the population size can be predictable in this region. This new method is primarily based on the Water Environmental Threshold Value Model, which is proposed for the first time in this article, as well as some statistical techniques. In this mathematical model, the threshold value of GDP constrained by water environmental carrying capacity at a regional level is a function of five independent variables: G=[(P + C)×k_I + 0.1W_I]/[k_I×(1-R_T)], where G denotes the threshold value of GDP at a regional level, P is the value-added in primary, C is the value-added in construction, W_I is the goal of the total amount control of industrial pollutants, R_T is the proportion of the tertiary industry in GDP, and k_I is the amount of pollutant emissions per 104 yuan of industrial value-added. The statistical methods applied here include regression analysis, which is used for the computation of the parameters P, C, W_I, R_T, k_I, and interval estimation, which is used for the analysis of the sensitivity and reliability of the model. Yangzhou City is taken as a case to compute the economic scale constrained by the water environmental carrying capacity in 2015. COD is chosen as a total amount control factor (COD≤56845 t/a). The values of P, C, W_I, R_T, and k_I are 229.02×10⁸ yuan, 228.45×10⁸ yuan, 18132 t, 39%, and 0.39 (1.38) kg/10⁴ yuan per unit of industrial value-added, respectively. The result of computation indicates that: 1) Taking into account the continuity of the policy of pollutant reduction (k_I=0.39), the annual water environmental carrying capacity of Yangzhou City can achieve 8372×10⁸ yuan in GDP, with a confidence level of 90% and a confidence interval of 7881×10⁸ to 9030×10⁸ yuan; 2) without considering the pollutant emission reduction policy (k_I =1.38), the annual GDP at the regional level can reach only 2904×10⁸ yuan; 3) When the total amount control goal is determined, the main limiting factors of economic growth are the pollutant emission intensity and the proportion of the tertiary industry. If the regional economic growth target touches 5070×10⁸ yuan, then the COD emission intensity should be controlled to below 0.69 kg/10⁴ yuan per unit of industrial value-added.

Key words: water environmental carrying capacity, pollutant emission intensity, environmental science, sustainable development

中图分类号:

刘臣辉, 申雨桐, 周明耀, 徐海钢, 余龙. 水环境承载力约束下的城市经济规模量化研究[J]. 自然资源学报, 2013, 28(11): 1903-1910.

LIU Chen-hui, SHEN Yu-tong, ZHOU Ming-yao, XU Hai-gang, YU Long. A Quantitative Study of Urban Economic Scale Constrained by Water Environmental Carrying Capacity[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2013, 28(11): 1903-1910.

参考文献

[1] 曾维华, 叶文虎, 薛纪渝, 等. 人口、资源与环境协调发展关键问题之——环境承载力研究[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 1991, 1(2): 33-37.[ZENG Wei-hua, YE Wen-hu, XUE Ji-yu, et al. Environmental carrying capacity: A key to the coordination of the development of population, resources and environment. China Population, Resources and Environment, 1991, 1(2): 33-37.]
[2] 彭再德, 杨凯, 王云, 等. 区域环境承载力研究方法初探[J]. 中国环境科学, 1996, 16(1): 6-10.[PENG Zai-de, YANG Kai, WANG Yun, et al. The primary exploring of the research method of AESC. China Environmental Science, 1996, 16(1): 6-10.]
[3] 汤晓雷, 刘年丰, 李贝, 等. 单因子超载的综合环境承载力计算方法研究[J]. 环境科学与技术, 2007, 30(4): 70-71.[TANG Xiao-lei, LIU Nian-feng, LI Bei, et al. Calculation of synthetic environmental carrying capacity with single factor overloading. Environmental Science and Technology, 2007, 30(4): 70-71.]
[4] 李朝辉, 魏贵臣. 生态环境承载力评价方法研究及实例[J]. 环境科学与技术, 2005, 28(1): 75-76.[LI Zhao-hui, WEI Gui-chen. Regional ecological carrying capacity: Evaluation and a case study. Environmental Science and Technology, 2005, 28(1): 75-76.]
[5] 王友贞, 施国庆, 王德胜. 区域水资源承载力评价指标体系的研究[J]. 自然资源学报, 2005, 20(4): 597-604.[WANG You-zhen, SHI Guo-qing, WANG De-sheng. Study on evaluation indexes if regional water resources carrying capacity. Journal of Natural Resources, 2005, 20(4): 597-604.]
[6] 顾晓薇, 王青, 刘敬智, 等. 环境压力指标及应用[J]. 中国环境科学, 2005, 25(3): 315-319.[GU Xiao-wei, WANG Qing, LIU Jing-zhi, et al. Environmental pressure indexes and their application. China Environmental Science, 2005, 25(3): 315-319.]
[7] 余丹林, 毛汉英, 高群. 状态空间衡量区域承载状况初探——以环渤海地区为例[J]. 地理研究, 2003, 22(2): 201-210.[YU Dan-lin, MAO Han-ying, GAO Qun. Study on regional carrying capacity: Theory, method and example—Take the Bohai-Rim area as example. Geographical Research, 2003, 22(2): 201-210.]
[8] 郝晓辉. ECCO 模型: 持续发展的全新定量分析方法[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 1995, 5(1): 43-46.[HAO Xiaohui. An approach of quantitative analysis of sustainable development: ECCO model. China Population, Resources and Environment, 1995, 5(1): 43-46.]
[9] 汪彦博, 王嵩峰, 周培疆, 等. 石家庄市水环境承载力的系统动力学研究[J]. 环境科学与技术, 2006, 29(3): 26-27.[WANG Yan-bo, WANG Song-feng, ZHOU Pei-jiang, et al. Estimating water environmental carrying capacity in Shijiazhuang City using system dynamics. Environmental Science & Technology, 2006, 29(3): 26-27.]
[10] Wu S M, Huang G H, Guo H C, et al. An interactive inexact-fuzzy approach for multi-objective planning of water resource systems[J]. Water Science Technology, 1997, 36(5): 235-242.
[11] 曾维华, 杨月梅. 环境承载力不确定性多目标优化模型及其应用——以北京市通州区区域战略环境影响评价为例[J]. 中国环境科学, 2008, 28(5): 667-672.[ZENG Wei-hua, YANG Yue-mei. Environmental carrying capacity uncertain type multi-objective optimum model—Using regional strategic EIA on Tongzhou District, Beijing City as example. China Environmental Science, 2008, 28(5): 667-672.]
[12] 彭建, 吴建生, 蒋依依, 等. 生态足迹分析应用于区域可持续发展生态评估的缺陷[J]. 生态学报, 2006, 26 (8): 2716-2722.[PENG Jian, WU Jian-sheng, JIANG Yi-yi, et al. Shortcomings of applying ecological footprints to the ecological assessment of regional sustainable development. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2006, 26 (8): 2716-2722.]
[13] Wackernagel M, Ree W E. Perceptual and structural barrires to investing in natural capital: Economics form an ecological footprint perspective[J]. Ecological Economics, 1997, 20(1): 3-24.
[14] 顾康康, 刘景双, 窦晶鑫. 辽中地区矿业城市生态承载力研究[J]. 自然资源学报, 2008, 23(1): 87-94.[GU Kang-kang, LIU Jing-shuang, DOU Jing-xin. The research about ecological carrying capacity of mining cities in central Liaoning. Journal of Natural Resources, 2008, 23(1): 87-94.]
[15] 扬州统计局. 扬州统计年鉴[Z]. 扬州统计出版社, 2006—2011.[Yangzhou Bureau of Statistics. Yangzhou Statistical Yearbook. Yangzhou Statistics Press, 2006-2011.]
[16] 孙耀东, 王太源, 宗序平. 可线性化回归方法的改进和拓展[J]. 扬州大学学报: 自然科学版, 2001, 4(2): 11-14.[SUN Yao-dong, WANG Tai-yuan, ZONG Xu-ping. Improvement and extension of available linearized regression. Journal of Yangzhou University: Natural Science Edition, 2001, 4(2): 11-14.]