自然资源学报 ›› 2013, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (10): 1685-1693.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2013.10.004

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近50a海河流域降水丰枯遭遇分析

王中根1, 罗燏辀1,2, 吴梦莹1, 赵玲玲3,1   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室, 中国北京 100101;
    2. 加州大学戴维斯分校陆地-大气-水资源系, 美国 95616;
    3. 广州地理研究所, 中国广州 510070
  • 收稿日期:2011-09-07 修回日期:2013-04-11 出版日期:2013-10-20 发布日期:2013-10-20
  • 作者简介:王中根(1973- ),男,河南潢川人,博士,研究员,主要从事流域水文模拟及水资源管理工作。E-mail:wangzg@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41271084,40701027);"十一五"支撑项目(2006BAB14B07)。

Synchronous-asynchronous Encounter Probability Analysis on Precipitation in the Haihe River Basin during the Last Five Decades

WANG Zhong-gen1, LUO Yu-zhou1,2, WU Meng-ying1, ZHAO Ling-ling3,1   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Science and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    2. Department of Land, Air and Water Resources, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, USA;
    3. Guangzhou Institute of Geography, Guangzhou 510070, China
  • Received:2011-09-07 Revised:2013-04-11 Online:2013-10-20 Published:2013-10-20
  • Contact: 赵玲玲(1980- ),女,河南濮阳人,博士,主要从事流域水文循环模拟及水资源管理工作。E-mail:linglingzhao@foxmail.com E-mail:linglingzhao@foxmail.com

摘要: 针对海河流域洪水资源利用的迫切需求,基于39 个气象站点近50 a 长系列降水数据(1951—2008 年),利用Copula 连接函数,揭示海河流域内部南北山区与平原区之间的降水丰枯遭遇情况,为缺水的海河流域洪水资源利用与管理提供决策依据。研究表明,海河流域各区受到同一天气状况影响较大,同一水系在山区和平原区的降水同丰、同枯概率均在20%以上,其中同枯的概率更大(北部水系25%,南部水系31%);同一水系内山区丰水与平原区枯水的遭遇概率小于6%,降水丰、枯互补性较差;但不同水系之间的山区与平原区降水丰枯遭遇概率为9%。从全流域的角度,考虑南北水系之间调水,将有助于海河流域洪水资源的开发利用。

关键词: Copula函数, 降水, 丰枯遭遇, 洪水资源化, 海河流域

Abstract: The rapid growths of population and economy in the Haihe River Basin imposed an urgent challenge to the regional sustainability of water resources. Flood utilization has recognized as an effective practice to mitigate the water crisis in this area. The capacity and implementation of flood utilization rely on an analysis of encounter probability of precipitations between different areas of the basin. This paper presents the results of encounter probability analysis on precipitation in the Haihe River Basin. Data analysis was based on monthly precipitation measurements from 39 weather stations in the study area during 1951-2008. The measurements were spatially grouped into four sub-regions by north/south watersheds and their plain/mountain portions, i.e., plain area of north watersheds, mountain area of north watersheds, plain area of south watersheds, and mountain area of south watersheds. Copula function was applied in this study to determine the joint distribution of precipitations between the four sub-regions, and derive the corresponding probabilities of synchronous-asynchronous encounter. Analysis results indicated that all the four sub-regions in the Haihe River Basin were mainly controlled by the same climate pattern. In either north or south watersheds, the synchronous encounter probabilities of precipitation between plain and mountain sub-regions were higher than 20%, while relatively higher probability was observed for the synchronous encounter of lower precipitation (25% and 31% for north and south watersheds, respectively). In addition, the asynchronous probabilities of precipitation between plain and mountain portions within a watershed were less than 6% , indicating a poor complementarity for the diversion of water resources. However, the asynchronous probabilities of precipitation between plain and mountain sub-regions in different watersheds were>9%. From the viewpoint of the whole basin, this study suggested that water diversion between the north and south watersheds may facilitate the flood utilization in the Haihe River Basin.

Key words: flood utilization, precipitation, synchronous-asynchronous encounter probability, Copula function, the Haihe River Basin

中图分类号: 

  • P426.6