自然资源学报 ›› 2013, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (2): 328-335.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2013.02.014

• 资源研究方法 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于径向基函数神经网络方法的城市生态压力预测

吴明, 姚尧, 贾冯睿, 王雷, 高艳波   

  1. 辽宁石油化工大学 石油天然气工程学院, 辽宁 抚顺 113000
  • 收稿日期:2011-11-30 修回日期:2012-06-09 出版日期:2013-02-20 发布日期:2013-01-30
  • 作者简介:吴明(1961- ),男,辽宁铁岭人,教授,博士,主要研究区域资源开发与区域发展.E-mail:wuming0413@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    辽宁省科学技术计划项目(20100401025).

Urban Ecosystem Pressure Based on Radial Basis Function Neural Network

WU Ming, YAO Yao, JIA Feng-rui, WANG Lei, GAO Yan-bo   

  1. College of Petroleum Engineering, Liaoning Shihua University, Fushun 113000, China
  • Received:2011-11-30 Revised:2012-06-09 Online:2013-02-20 Published:2013-01-30

摘要:

针对城市生态压力影响因素复杂,难以对城市未来可持续发展状况做出准确判断的问题,提出了城市生态压力的径向基函数神经网络预测模型,分析了影响城市生态系统的主要因素.以抚顺市1995—2009年数据为基础,验证了模型的准确性并预测了该市2010—2015年城市生态系统的压力情况.研究结果表明:能源消耗指标是影响城市生态系统压力的主要因素;运用径向基函数神经网络模型对训练样本的拟合精度以及对测试样本的仿真精度分别达97.91%和94.16%;抚顺市2015年的人均生态足迹、 生态承载力和生态赤字分别达到7.013、 0.523和6.49 hm2/人.

关键词: 城市生态系统, 生态压力, 径向基函数神经网络

Abstract:

Considering the difficulty in the estimation of sustainable development due to the complex ecological pressure influencing factors, this paper proposed the radial basis function neural network model for predicting urban ecological system pressure and analyzed the primary influencing factors on urban ecological system pressure. The model was studied on the basis of Fushun’s data during 1995-2009, the accuracy of the radial basis function neural network prediction model is validated and then the situation of urban ecological system pressure was predicted from 2010 to 2015. The results of the study showed that the energy consumption indicator was the primary influencing factor for urban ecological system pressure; the fitting and simulation precision for training and testing samples were 97.91% and 94.16% by using radial basis function neural network model, respectively; the ecological footprint, the ecological carrying capacity and the ecological deficit would be 7.013, 0.523 and 6.49 hm2/cap for Fushun in 2015, respectively.

Key words: urban ecosystem, ecological pressure, radial basis function neural network

中图分类号: 

  • X826