自然资源学报

自然资源学报 ›› 2013, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (2): 211-219.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2013.02.003

• 资源利用与管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

气候变化对鲁西北平原冬小麦产量的影响及对策

陈鹏飞1,2, 于延春3, 杨飞1, 熊伟4, 欧阳竹1, 王吉顺3, 王卷乐1   

  1. 1. 中国科学院 地理科学与资源研究所, 资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室, 北京 100101;
    2. 农业部 农业信息技术 重点实验室, 北京 100081;
    3. 中国科学院 地理科学与资源研究所禹城试验站, 北京 100101;
    4. 中国农业科学院 农业环境与可持续发展研究所, 北京100081
  • 收稿日期:2012-04-10 修回日期:2012-08-14 出版日期:2013-02-20 发布日期:2013-01-30
  • 作者简介:陈鹏飞(1982- ),男,河南许昌人,助理研究员,主要从事农业遥感应用,气候变化影响与预测方面研究.E-mail:pengfeichen@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:

    中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所创新项目(201003002);农业部农业信息技术重点试验室开放基金(2011004);广东省中科院全面战略合作项目(2010B090300065,2012B091100256);资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室青年人才培养基金(O8R8B670KA).

Effects of Climate Change on Winter Wheat Yield and Its Adaptation Measurement in Northwest Plain of Shandong Province

CHEN Peng-fei1,2, YU Yan-chun3, YANG Fei1, XIONG Wei4, OUYANG Zhu1, WANG Ji-shun3, WANG Juan-le1   

  1. 1. State Key Lab of Resources and Environment Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    2. Key Laboratory of Agricultural Information Technology, Ministry of Agriculture, Beijing 100081, China;
    3. Yucheng Station, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    4. Institute of Agro-Environment and Sustainable Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Beijing 100081, China
  • Received:2012-04-10 Revised:2012-08-14 Online:2013-02-20 Published:2013-01-30

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被引次数

31 | 5

摘要：

气候变化会导致气候资源发生改变,从而引发粮食安全问题.耦合区域气候模式和作物生长模型,可定量分析气候变化导致的作物产量变动,探讨适宜的田间管理应对措施.研究以冬小麦作为研究对象,以我国粮食主产区之一的鲁西北平原作为研究区域,耦合MIROC-RegCM3区域气候模式和CERES-Wheat作物生长模型,开展A1B温室气体排放情景下,气候变化对冬小麦产量的影响及适应措施研究.结果表明,A1B气候情景下,该区域冬小麦潜在产量会有所下降;在现有管理措施的基础上,可通过培育对春化作用依赖较小的品种、 适当提早播期、 增加越冬水灌溉量等方式保证产量,减少年际间变异.该文研究结果可为应对未来气候变暖、 确保粮食安全提供参考.

关键词: 气候变化, 冬小麦, 产量, 适应措施

Abstract:

Climate change, causing transformation of climate resources, results in food security problem. The coupling of regional climate model with crop growth model can be used to quantitatively analyze crop yield variability under climate change, and to propose suitable field management for maintaining crop yield. Taking northwest plain of Shandong Province, which is one of the major food producing areas of China, as a research region, this study analyzed effect of climate change on winter wheat yield and its adaptation measurement under A1B climate change scenario, by means of coupling regional climate model with crop growth model. The results shows winter wheat yield will decrease under A1B climate change scenario. Taking the measures of cultivating new variety with a character of less sensible to vernalization, appropriate advancing sowing date and increasing the amount of overwintering irrigation can yield security and reduce annual variability.

Key words: climate change, winter wheat, yield, adaptation measurement

中图分类号: 

  • S162