自然资源学报 ›› 2013, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (2): 199-210.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2013.02.002

• 资源利用与管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

环洞庭湖区水资源供需系统仿真及优化决策研究

李静芝, 朱翔, 李景保   

  1. 湖南师范大学 资源与环境科学学院, 长沙 410008
  • 收稿日期:2011-12-05 修回日期:2012-09-05 出版日期:2013-02-20 发布日期:2013-01-30
  • 通讯作者: 朱翔(1955- ),男,教授.E-mail:zhuxiang882000@yahoo.com.cn E-mail:zhuxiang882000@yahoo.com.cn
  • 作者简介:李静芝(1984- ),女,湖南永州人,博士研究生,主要研究资源开发与区域可持续发展.E-mail:lijingzhi2210862@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目(41071067);湖南省重点学科建设(地理学)项目.

Research on the Dynamics Analysis and Optimization Decision-Making of Water Resources Supply and Demand System in Dongting Lake District

LI Jing-zhi, ZHU Xiang, LI Jing-bao   

  1. College of Resources and Environment Science, Hunan Normal University, Changsha 410081, China
  • Received:2011-12-05 Revised:2012-09-05 Online:2013-02-20 Published:2013-01-30

摘要:

论文运用系统分析的理论与方法,分析环洞庭湖区水资源供需系统的特征和各要素之间的相互作用,建立水资源供需系统模型,仿真模拟传统发展模式、发展经济型模式、节水型模式和协调型模式等四种不同情景下,2010—2030年环洞庭湖区水资源供需变化趋势.结果表明:①随着经济的发展和人口的增长,环洞庭湖区水资源供需矛盾十分突出;②在协调型模式下,模拟期末环洞庭湖区总需水量达到159.1×108 m3,供需缺口最大值出现在2020年,为1.9×108 m3,到2030年水资源供给能力约有3.6×108 m3富余,模拟期内水资源供给基本能够满足社会经济发展的需求,且能够获得最大的综合效益,是环洞庭湖区水资源开发利用的最佳方案;③为了达到预期目标,还需增强节水意识、完善用水管理、优化经济结构,加大水利投入和环境整治,提高节水技术水平和水利保障水平.

关键词: 水资源供需系统, 优化决策, 系统动力学, 环洞庭湖区

Abstract:

A water resources supply and demand system dynamic model was built up based on the systematic analysis of characteristics and the inter-relationship of sub-systems of water resources supply and demand system in Dongting Lake District. In modeling, four scenarios, as traditional development model, economic development model, water saving model and concerted development model, were simulated to calculate the changing trends of the balance of water resources supply and demand in Dongting Lake District from 2010 to 2030. The simulation suggests that: 1) The problem of water resources supply and demand is becoming increasingly conspicuous with growing population and fast developed economy. 2) By 2030, the water resources demand will be reaching a total of 159.1×108 m3, the largest gap between supply and demand is 1.9×108 m3 in 2020, and the supply surplus of water resources is 3.6×108 m3 in 2030, water resources supply meets basically the growing demands for socio-economic development, and the greatest comprehensive benefits under concerted development model can be generated, hence it will be the best solution to the development and utilization of water resources in Dongting Lake District. 3) We should enhance our awareness of protection of water resources, strengthen the management on water conservation, optimize economic structure, increase our investment in water conservancy projects and environmental improvement, promote the utilization ratio and the support capabilities of water resources so as to realize the expected goal.

Key words: water resources supply and demand system, optimization decision-making, system dynamics, Dongting Lake District

中图分类号: 

  • TV213.9