自然资源学报 ›› 2012, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (12): 2102-2112.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2012.12.011

• 资源评价 • 上一篇    下一篇

变化环境下北江流域水文极值演变特征、成因及影响

叶长青1,2, 陈晓宏1,2, 张家鸣1,2, 张丽娟1,2   

  1. 1. 中山大学 水资源与环境研究中心, 广州 510275;
    2. 华南地区水循环与水安全广东省普通高校重点实验室, 广州 510275
  • 收稿日期:2012-03-22 修回日期:2012-08-01 出版日期:2012-12-20 发布日期:2012-12-20
  • 通讯作者: 陈晓宏,教授,博士,博士生导师。E-mail:eescxh@mail.sysu.edu.cn E-mail:eescxh@mail.sysu.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:叶长青(1982-),男,海南屯昌人,博士研究生,主要从事水文水资源方面研究。E-mail:yechangqing2001@hotmail.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金重点项目(50839005); 广东省科技厅项目(2010B050300010); 广东省水利科技创新项目(2009-39); 中英瑞气候变化适应项目广东气候变化风险评估及适应对策研究(ACCC/20100705-1); 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)项目(2010CB428405); 广东省自然科学基金(S2011010001549)。

Changing Properties, Causes and Impacts of Extreme Stream Flow under the Changing Environment in Beijiang River, China

YE Chang-qing1,2, CHEN Xiao-hong1,2, ZHANG Jia-ming1,2, ZHANG Li-juan1,2   

  1. 1. Department of Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China;
    2. Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security in Southern China of Guangdong High Education Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China
  • Received:2012-03-22 Revised:2012-08-01 Online:2012-12-20 Published:2012-12-20

摘要:

选用8种概率分布函数,系统分析北江上游犁市和下游石角2站的水文极值流量。以极大似然法估计函数参数,采用K-S、A-D、ABS和AIC拟合优度方法选出变化环境前后最优分布函数。并对水文极值流量变化规律及其影响作了有益探讨。结果表明:1991年后流域下垫面植被减少是造成年最大流量显著上升的主要原因。犁市站极值流量厚尾分布拟合最好,石角站薄尾分布拟合最优,变化环境前后洪水频率最优分布线型基本一致,但流量增大造成分布参数改变已导致分布线型高水尾部特性变陡,相应设计流量偏大。用水文情势发生变化前估计的洪水重现期往往不能很好地描述变化后洪水频率特征。北江上游及时修建防洪水利工程对减轻中下游的防洪压力尤为重要。

关键词: 频率分析, 概率分布函数, 极值流量, 重现期

Abstract:

We analyzed the statistical properties of hydrologic extreme flow for hydrologic stations of Lishi and Shijiao in Beijiang River using eight probability distribution functions. Estimate of parameters was performed using the maximum likelihood technique. Goodness-of-fit was done based on K-S, A-D, ABS and AIC for the optimal linear frequency distribution before and after environmental change. And the rules and effects of variability for hydrologic extreme flow was discussed. The research results indicate that based on vegetation reduction in the basin, annual maximum flow increased significantly in 1991, the hydrological conditions varied. Heavy tail distribution at Lishi and light tail distribution at Shijiao were found to be the best fitting model. The optimal linear frequency distribution maintain consistency before and after environment change, but the impacts on fitting curve of flood series showed an overall performance as upper tail from "gentle" to"steep", and the designed flood magnitude will become larger. After changes in the hydrological regime, the flood return period estimated before the change is often unable to well describe the flood frequency characteristics after environmental changes. Construction of water conservancy projects in the upper reaches is vital to alleviate the pressure of flood on the middle and lower reaches of the river.

Key words: frequency analysis, probability distribution functions, stream flow extremes, return periods

中图分类号: 

  • P333.6