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### 内蒙古经济发展与环境污染之间关系的检验

1. 1. 中国科学院 地理科学与资源研究所, 北京 100101;
2. 浙江农林大学 国际生态学研究中心, 杭州 311300
• 收稿日期:2012-01-11 修回日期:2012-05-08 出版日期:2012-11-20 发布日期:2012-11-20
• 通讯作者: 李海涛(1968-),男,山东荣成人,副研究员,博士,研究方向为生态系统生态学与生态经济学。E-mail:liht@igsnrr.ac.cn E-mail:liht@igsnrr.ac.cn
• 作者简介:陈桂月(1989-),女,安徽六安人,硕士,研究方向为环境经济学。E-mail:guiyuechen@gmail.com
• 基金资助:

国际合作项目"蒙古高原社会-自然系统相互作用机制研究"NASA(NN-X-09-AM-55G)。

### A Test on Relationship between Economic Growth and Environmental Pollution in Inner Mongolia

CHEN Gui-yue1, LI Hai-tao1,2, LIANG Tao1

1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
2. International Ecology Center, Zhejiang A & F University, Hangzhou 311300, China
• Received:2012-01-11 Revised:2012-05-08 Online:2012-11-20 Published:2012-11-20

Abstract:

Based on the unrestricted VAR method, the dynamic interactions between economic growth and environmental pollution was investigated through the variable stationary characterization and cointegration test, Granger causality test, impulse response functions and variance decomposition analysis according to the time series data of six kinds of pollution indices and per capita GDP in Inner Mongolia from 1986 to 2009. The results were as follows: 1) There are long-term relationships among the release rate of industrial dust, solid wastes, sulfur dioxide, soot, industrial gas, waste water and the per capita GDP. When the release rate of industrial dust, solid wastes, sulfur dioxide and soot increased by 1%, the per capita GDP would decrease by 0.068%, 0.411%,0.380% and 0.418%,respectively; when the release rate of industrial gas and waste water increased by 1%, the per capita gross domestic production would increase by 1.305% and 1.601% individually. 2) The per capita GDP Granger caused industrial solid wastes and gas emissions, while it was not true vice versa. This was consistent with the fact that Inner Mongolia was at a middle industrialization stage during the study period. 3) The response of economic growth to environmental quality was almost zero in the first period while there was negative relationship between per capita GDP and dust, waste water emissions for a long time. The function graph of response of per capita GDP to industrial gases represented "increasing-decreasing-increasing" trend in the first four periods while the impact decreased gradually. The response of per capita GDP to industrial solid wastes and sulfur dioxide was not apparent, almost reaching zero and the response of per capita GDP to soot was the biggest in the second period. 4) The variance decomposition results of per capita GDP show that besides per capita GDP itself, the variation of all environmental factors makes the least contribution to the changes of per capita GDP, and their contribution rates are almost zero in the first period and rise unobviously afterwards; while the variation of per capita GDP contributes more to the changes of environmental factors. Among all the environmental factors, per capita GDP makes the biggest contribution to the changes of dust emissions, reaching 57.62% steadily. Per capita GDP makes the least contribution to the changes of soot emissions, reaching 12.7% steadily from the first to the tenth periods. It was further explaining that the pollutant emissions could not promote the economy heavily while the increase of per capita GDP can lead to pollutants emission.

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