自然资源学报 ›› 2012, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (11): 1823-1832.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2012.11.002

• 资源利用与管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

发达地区建设用地扩张与经济发展相关关系的探究——基于与全国平均水平的比较

李鹏1, 濮励杰1,2   

  1. 1. 南京大学 地理与海洋科学学院, 南京 210093;
    2. 国土资源部 土地利用重点实验室, 北京 100029
  • 收稿日期:2011-09-19 修回日期:2012-02-23 出版日期:2012-11-20 发布日期:2012-11-20
  • 作者简介:李鹏(1987-),男,河北承德人,硕士,主要从事土地利用研究。E-mail:iceberg1987@126.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学重点基金项目(41230751);国家自然科学基金项目(40871255)。

Delving into the Particularity on the Relationship between Construction Land Expansion and Economic Growth in Developed Region——Comparing with the Average of the Whole China

LI Peng1, PU Li-jie1,2   

  1. 1. School of Geographic and Oceanographic Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China;
    2. Key Lab of Land Use, Ministry of Land and Resources, Beijing 100029, China
  • Received:2011-09-19 Revised:2012-02-23 Online:2012-11-20 Published:2012-11-20

摘要:

建设用地扩张与经济发展的密切关系在发达地区除了表现出全国平均水平的共性外,又表现出它的特殊性。论文在赵可等人研究的基础上,通过基于AR模型修正的线性回归法和协整分析法,对比分析了江苏省内两者关系的特殊性,结果显示:①江苏省的经济发展与建设用地的相关系数为0.992,回归结果表明,经济每增长1%,建设用地将增加0.135 9个百分点,这远小于全国的平均水平;②苏南5市的单位经济增长所带动的建设用地增量明显低于全国,但略高于江苏省;③江苏省的经济发展与建设用地扩张存在一个长期均衡关系,其中建设用地面积对短期波动的调整系数为-0.446 9,经济增长对短期波动的调整系数为2.236 0,后者明显大于全国平均值;④江苏省的经济发展是建设用地扩张的单向Granger原因。研究结论:各级政府和决策者应该在积极探索发达地区遏制建设用地扩张机制的同时彻底放弃通过建设用地扩张带动经济增长的想法与尝试,同时要积极发挥中小城市的"人口分流"作用,通过抑制人口向大城市集聚而控制建设用地的扩张。

关键词: 建设用地扩张, 经济发展, 基于AR模型修正的线性回归, 协整分析

Abstract:

There is a close relationship between construction land expansion and economic growth, which in developed region have their own particularity besides the commonness. In order to analyze the particular relationship between construction land expansion and economic growth in Jiangsu Province, the linear regression basing on AR model and the co-integration are used basing on the research of Zhao Ke et al. Results show that: 1) The correlation coefficient between construction land and economic growth in Jiangsu Province is 0.992 which is comparatively high. The result of regression shows that when the GDP grows 1%, the area of construction land will grows 0.1359% in response which is lower than the average of the whole country. 2) The speed of construction land expansion driven by economic growth in southern Jiangsu Province is smaller than that of the whole country, but bigger than that of the whole Jiangsu Province. This perhaps is related to the concentration of population and the development of rural industry. 3) There existed a long-term stable equilibrium between construction land area and economic growth. The adjusted coefficient of constriction land to the short-time fluctuate is -0.4469, that of economic growth is 2.2360, which is higher than the average of whole country researched by Zhao Ke et al. 4) The economic growth is the Granger reason for the construction land expansion, but not the reverse, which is the same to the conclusion of Zhao Ke et al. Finally, the author brings forward the conclusion that when the governors and decision-makers are trying to find methods to hold back construction land expansion, they should give up the thought or attempt that construction land expansion can accelerate economic growth drastically. At the same time, developing small city which can attract more people who want to go to big city is a good way to prevent construction land expansion.

Key words: construction land expansion, economic growth, linear regression basing on AR model, co-integration

中图分类号: 

  • F293.2