自然资源学报

自然资源学报 ›› 2012, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (9): 1490-1496.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2012.09.006

• 资源安全 • 上一篇    下一篇

国际铁矿石定价机制改变与我国铁矿石进口量变化的实证分析

田玉军1, 朱吉双1, 马国霞2, 李鲁宁1   

  1. 1. 交通运输部 水运科学研究院, 北京 100088;
    2. 环境保护部 环境规划院, 北京100012
  • 收稿日期:2011-04-07 修回日期:2012-05-02 出版日期:2012-09-20 发布日期:2012-09-20
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(40801051);交通运输部交通软科学研究项目(2011-322-222-220)。

Empirical Analysis on Impacts of the New International Pricing Mechanism on Iron Ore Imports of China

TIAN Yu-jun1, ZHU Ji-shuang1, MA Guo-xia2, LI Lu-ning1   

  1. 1. Waterborne Transportation Institute, Ministry of Transport, Beijing 100088, China;
    2. Chinese Academy for Environmental Planning of the State Environmental Protection Administration, Beijing 100012, China
  • Received:2011-04-07 Revised:2012-05-02 Online:2012-09-20 Published:2012-09-20

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36 | 5

摘要： 随着我国对外贸易和国内钢铁企业的发展,我国铁矿石进口量大幅上升,已成为全球最大的铁矿石消费国。与此同时,国际铁矿石巨头摒弃长期协议定价机制,单方面推行季度、 指数等定价模式。为了认识国际铁矿石定价机制改变对我国铁矿石进口的影响,论文基于铁矿石进口量、 铁矿石价格、 国内原矿产量等统计指标的月度数据,通过定性分析与Granger因果检验,综合判断国际铁矿石定价机制改变与铁矿石进口量变化之间的关系。结果表明:近两年我国铁矿石进口量的短期波动频繁;国际铁矿石定价机制改变引起的铁矿石价格震荡是导致我国铁矿石进口量波动的主要动因;结合国内外形势判断,未来一段时期内我国铁矿石进口量的短期波动还会持续。

关键词: 国际铁矿石, 定价模式, 铁矿石进口量, 短期波动

Abstract: With the development of China’s foreign trade and large domestic demand for iron ore, iron ore imports have risen sharply in recent years. According to statistics, by the end of 2011 the iron ore imports is 6.18×108 t, an increase of 6.7 times compared with 2001. Nowadays, China has become the largest iron ore consumer. Meanwhile, international iron ore giants abandon long agreement price mechanism, and unilateral implementation of new pricing mechanism. In order to understand the impact of new pricing mechanism on iron ore imports, using statistic and Granger cause, this paper explored the linkages between new international pricing mechanism and China’s iron ore imports. The results show that iron ore imports of China frequently fluctuated in recent years, and iron ore prices shock that caused by international iron ore pricing mechanism change, is the main drive force for China’s iron ore imports fluctuations. Furthermore, in future short-term fluctuations of China’s iron ore imports will continue.

Key words: international iron ore, pricing mechanism, iron ore imports, short-term fluctuation

中图分类号: 

  • F426.1