自然资源学报 ›› 2012, Vol. ›› Issue (7): 1101-1111.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2012.07.003

• 资源利用与管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

碳税对于发展非化石能源的作用 ——基于能源-环境-经济模型的分析

周晟吕1,2, 石敏俊1,2, 李 娜1,2, 袁永娜1,2   

  1. 1. 中国科学院 研究生院, 北京 100049;
    2. 中国科学院 虚拟经济与数据科学研究中心, 北京 100190
  • 收稿日期:2011-07-11 修回日期:2011-12-05 出版日期:2012-07-20 发布日期:2012-07-20
  • 通讯作者: 石敏俊(1964- ),男,浙江新昌人,教授,博士,主要研究领域有低碳经济、 资源经济和区域经济等。E-mail:mjshil1964@gmail.com E-mail:mjshil1964@gmail.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金面上项目(71173212);国家自然科学基金地球科学部青年基金项目(41101556)。

The Impact of Carbon Tax on Non-Fossil Energy Development——Based on the Analysis of Energy-Environment-Economic Model

ZHOU Sheng-l?1,2, SHI Min-jun1,2, LI Na1,2, YUAN Yong-na1,2   

  1. 1. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;
    2. Research Center on Fictitious Economy and Date Science, CAS, Beijing 100190, China
  • Received:2011-07-11 Revised:2011-12-05 Online:2012-07-20 Published:2012-07-20

摘要: 为评价实现我国2020年碳排放强度和非化石能源发展目标的经济和环境影响,论文应用基于动态CGE模型的中国能源-环境-经济模型,模拟了不同减排政策下的减排效果及经济影响。模拟结果显示,征收40元/t CO2碳税,将碳税作为政府收入、 居民收入、 削减影响较大行业的生产税、 以及用于非化石能源投资,2020年所能实现的减排量分别相当于CO2排放强度在2005年的基础上下降35.87%、 35.80%、 35.07%和40.13%,非化石能源的消费量将占到总消费量的10.99%、 11.00%、 10.75%和15.82%。政策情景下对经济的影响并不是十分显著,GDP的损失不超过0.2%。综合考虑到减排效益和经济影响,将碳税收入用作对非化石能源的投资,不仅有利于促进我国实现2020年碳排放强度目标,而且对于实现非化石能源发展目标也发挥着重要的作用。

关键词: 碳税, 中国能源-环境-经济模型, 非化石能源投资, 减排效果

Abstract: This paper aims to assess the economic and environmental effects of fulfilling China’s unilateral international climate policy and non-fossil fuel pledges for 2020. A Chinese Energy-Environment-Economic Model based on CGE model with detailed electricity technologies for China is used to simulate four different mitigation policies. The results show that with 40 yuan/tCO2 of carbon tax rate and use the carbon tax revenues as government income, household income, reduce output tax rate of most impacted sectors by carbon tax, and as the investment of non-fossil energy, can reduce CO2 emission intensity by 35.87%, 35.80%, 35.07% and 40.13% in 2020 compared to 2005, as well as non-fossil energy consumption will account for 10.99%, 11.00%, 10.75% and 15.82% of the total energy consumption, respectively. The mitigation costs under policy scenarios compared to baseline are rather modest and stay below 0.2% of GDP. If the tax revenue is used to alleviate output tax of the most affected industrial sectors, GDP may even increase. This paper suggests that the policy of combining carbon tax with investing non-fossil energy is a good policy choice, which can not only promote the achievement of carbon intensity target in 2020, but also provide funds for non-fossil energy development to stimulate the realization of the non-fossil fuel consumption goal. In addition, taking into account the co-benefits of lower fossil-fuel use suggests that for most mitigation policies considered these benefits outweigh any losses in GDP. Hence, China may benefit from unilateral climate policy in the short run, independent of possible long-term effects on global warming.

Key words: carbon tax, Chinese Energy-Environment-Economic Model, non-fossil energy investment, mitigation effects

中图分类号: 

  • X196