自然资源学报 ›› 2012, Vol. ›› Issue (5): 713-722.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2012.05.001

• 资源利用与管理 •    下一篇

经济发展与城市蔓延的Logistic曲线假说及其验证——基于华东地区典型城市的考察

李效顺1,2, 曲福田2, 陈友偲1, 牟守国1   

  1. 1. 中国矿业大学 江苏省资源环境信息工程重点实验室, 江苏 徐州 221116;
    2. 南京农业大学 中国土地问题研究中心, 南京 210095
  • 收稿日期:2011-09-21 修回日期:2011-11-04 出版日期:2012-05-20 发布日期:2012-05-20
  • 通讯作者: 曲福田(1962-),男,教授,博士生导师,研究方向为土地经济与管理。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金(71103182,70833001);中国博士后基金面上一等资助项目(2011M500098);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金和中国矿业大学高层次人才引进及青年教师启航计划项目(2011QNA01);江苏省社科基金项目(10JD019);江苏高校优势学科建设工程"测绘科学与技术学科";大学生实践创新训练计划项目(S111029019)。

Hypothesis and Validation on the Logistic Curve of Economic Development and Urban Sprawl —Based on the Investigation of the Typical Cities in East China

LI Xiao-shun1,2, QU Fu-tian2, CHEN You-si1, MOU Shou-gou1   

  1. 1. The Key Laboratories of Resources Environment and Information Engineering in Jiangsu Province, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221116, China;
    2. China Center for Land Policy Research, Nanjing Agriculture University, Nanjing 210095, China
  • Received:2011-09-21 Revised:2011-11-04 Online:2012-05-20 Published:2012-05-20

摘要: 经济发展与城市蔓延一直是学者研究的热点,其假说大都建立在发展与保护矛盾不断激化的基础之上,论文基于国内外城市发展轨迹的判断,提出新的研究假说:经济发展与城市蔓延存在Logistic曲线关系,并选择华东地区典型城市进行实证检验。结果表明:第一,国外(区域)经济发展由快速城市化、工业化初级阶段过渡到高级或后工业化阶段进程中,对城市蔓延扩张的依赖程度逐渐减弱;第二,中国1978—2003年间经济发展与城市蔓延增长具有周期性波动特征,2003年以后两者波动出现明显脱钩或分歧;第三,实证结果显示,上海、南京、无锡和徐州的第二三产业GDP在分别达到2.91×1011、1.02×1011、4.43×1010、9.42×1010元时,城市蔓延扩张出现拐点,验证了研究假说,其规模上限分别为8.99×104、6.01×104、2.20×104、3.43×104 hm2。研究结论能够为我国城市蔓延治理和公共政策调整提供科学依据和直接参考。

关键词: 经济发展, 城市蔓延, Logistic曲线, 假说验证

Abstract: Economic development and urban sprawl have been the scholar’s research hot spot, and the hypothesis is mostly based on the contradiction of the development and protection. This paper, based on the development track of cities at home and abroad, puts forward the new research perspective judgment. There is the Logistic curve between economic development and urban sprawl, and then the authors select the typical cities in East China for empirical test. As the results show: First, economic growth’dependence on urban sprawl weakened gradually abroad from the rapid urbanization, industrialization primary phase transiting to the senior or after the process of industrialization stage. Second, China’s economic growth and urban sprawl has periodical fluctuating characteristics from 1978 to 2003, and there have been significant decoupling or different fluctuations since 2003. Third, the empirical results show that turning points would come in urban sprawl when the secondary。 and tertiary industry GDP of Shanghai, Nanjing, Wuxi and Xuzhou achieved respectively 2.91×1011yuan, 1.02×1011 yuan, 4.43×1010 yuan and 9.42×1010 yuan, and this verified the hypothesis that the scale cap would be 8.99×104 hm2, 6.01×104 hm2, 2.20×104 hm2 and 3.43×104 hm2. Research conclusion can provide scientific basis and the direct reference for the management of urban sprawl and public policy adjustment in China.

Key words: economic growth, urban sprawl, Logistic curve, hypothesis verification

中图分类号: 

  • F293.2