自然资源学报 ›› 2012, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (4): 643-649.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2012.04.010

• 资源评价 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于Bayes方法的渤海渔业资源动态评析

李九奇1, 聂小杰1, 叶昌臣2, 尹增强1   

  1. 1. 大连海洋大学 海洋工程学院,辽宁 大连 116023;
    2. 辽宁省海洋水产科学研究院,辽宁 大连 116023
  • 收稿日期:2010-08-13 修回日期:2011-08-29 出版日期:2012-04-20 发布日期:2012-04-20
  • 作者简介:李九奇(1963-),男,副教授,主要从事渔业资源与评估、渔业资源经济学方面的研究。E-mail:lijiuqi@dlou.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:

    国家科技支撑项目计划(2006BAD09A15)。

A Stock Assessment of Bohai Sea by Bayes-based Pella-Tomlinson Model

LI Jiu-qi1, NIE Xiao-jie1, YE Chang-chen2, YIN Zeng-qiang1   

  1. 1. Ocean Engineering College of Dalian Ocean University, Dalian 116023, China;
    2. Liaoning Marine Fisheries Academy, Dalian 116023, China
  • Received:2010-08-13 Revised:2011-08-29 Online:2012-04-20 Published:2012-04-20

摘要: 研究利用来自于黄渤海渔政局的内部统计资料,采用基于Bayes方法的Pella-Tomlinson模型对渤海渔业资源动态进行了科学评析,评析结果显示:渤海渔业资源的环境容纳量为3.5×106~5.5×106 t;渔业资源综合种群的内禀增长率r为0.9~1.6;1979年渔业资源年平均生物量为2 332 523 t,尔后持续上升到1985年的最高值4 251 292 t,1985年以后又持续下降到2002年的最低值2 250 709 t;渤海渔业资源的最大持续产量MSY约为140×104 t左右;支持MSY所需的捕捞努力量约为817 771 kW, 到1991年捕捞努力量增加到963 564 kW,此时已超过获得MSY时需要的捕捞努力量,即从1991年开始出现捕捞过度。

关键词: Bayes, 渤海, 渔业资源评估, 种群动态模拟

Abstract: The fish stock assessment is important groundwork for present-day fish stock management, The report presents a stock assessment of Bohai Sea by Bayes-based Pella-Tomlinson model. All of the data used in this study are from the Bohai-Yellow Sea Fisheries Administration Bureau. The research results show that the carrying capacity K of Bohai Sea is about 3.5×106-5.5×106 t and the Intrinsic growth rate r is about 0.9-1.6; the estimated stock biomass increased from approximately 2332523 t in 1979 to the maximum value 4251292 t in 1985 and then declined to less than 2250709 t in 2002; the estimated MSY is 1400000 t; the estimated effort for achieving MSY is 817771 kW and the effort is 963564 kW in 1991, since then overfishing was started.

Key words: Bayes, Bohai Sea, stock assessment, population dynamic simulation

中图分类号: 

  • S922.9+1