城市增长边界分析方法研究——以长江三角洲常州市为例

doi:10.11849/zrzyxb.2012.02.015

自然资源学报 ›› 2012, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (2): 322-331.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2012.02.015

城市增长边界分析方法研究——以长江三角洲常州市为例

苏伟忠, 杨桂山, 陈爽, 王丹, 吴剑平, 高群

中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所湖泊与环境国家重点实验室, 南京 210008

收稿日期:2011-06-04 修回日期:2011-08-10 出版日期:2012-02-20 发布日期:2012-02-20
作者简介:苏伟忠(1977- ),男,山东莱芜人,副研究员,主要从事土地利用与生态保护研究。E-mail: wzsu@niglas.ac.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(41171429;41030745);中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向性项目(KZCX2-EW-315-04)。

Analysis Method of Urban Growth Boundary of the Changzhou City in the Yangtze River Delta

SU Wei-zhong, YANG Gui-shan, CHEN Shuang, WANG Dan, WU Jian-ping, GAO Qun

State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment, Nanjing Institute of Geography & Limnology, CAS, Nanjing 210008, China

Received:2011-06-04 Revised:2011-08-10 Online:2012-02-20 Published:2012-02-20

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 诸多国家已采取城市增长边界(Urban growth boundary, UGB)对策以抑制城市蔓延,我国目前城市与土地利用规划也明确要求划定UGB,但其分析方法研究还较薄弱。综合系统动力学模型、元胞自动机及城市承载力分析研究常州市区UGB,结果表明:预测到2020年常州市区城市建设用地面积为30 847 hm²,北部和南部组团外延增长、主城区及南北组团内部填充同步发展,UGB由沿江—德胜河—沪宁高速—新孟河—德胜河—武宜运河—沿江高速—沪宁高速—市域界限等围合而成;模型预测的UGB与GH-UGB(实际规划UGB)北部和东部空间拟合良好,西部和南部拟合较差,表明模型预测对空间整体和要素联系考虑不足,而用地规模偏差则表明模型预测更为客观;UGB分析方法在政策、空间规划理念和整体格局上有待完善。

关键词: 常州市, 城市增长边界, 城市承载力, 系统动力学模型, 元胞自动机

Abstract: Urban growth boundary (UGB) is a common tool employed by planners to constrain urban expansion in order to increase density of urban services and protect surrounding rural landscapes. Many countries have adopted the method of UGB to control urban sprawl. China's current urban and land use planning start also to have a clear requirement to delineate UGB, but the analysis method is also relatively weak. Especially, few models have been developed that simulate the UGB. We use system dynamics model, cellular automata in combination with the analysis of urban capacity to study the UGB of Changzhou City. Firstly, based on the analysis of the system dynamics model, urban land area of Changzhou City is 30847 hm² by 2020. Urban growth mainly performs the urban land spread model of urban fringe area, simultaneously, and infill development model in inner city area of the northern and southern groups and the main city area. The boudaries of urban growth is enclosed along the Yangtze River-Desheng River-Shanghai-Nanjing Expressway-New Meng River-Desheng River-Wu-Yi Canal-Ningli high-speed-Shanghai-Nanjing Expressway-city district boudary. UGB curve simulated in the paper and GH-UGB proposed in actual urban comprehensive planning spatially fit well in the northern and eastern parts, but not in the western and southern parts. We think that it reflects the flexible nature of planning tools and the deficiencies of model prediction on considering macro-space pattern and the elements inner contacts of urban system. However, the forecast value of urban land size has a weak gap between the UGB and GH-UGB, and it reflects the subjectivity of the planning tools and the objectivity of the model prediction. This method in our paper has the advantage of using a variety of model combined with the urban capacity analysis, but needs to be improved in fully considering random policies, urban elements contacts and spatial overall pattern.

Key words: urban growth boundary, urban capacity, system dynamics model, cellular automata, Changzhou city

中图分类号:

F301.23

苏伟忠, 杨桂山, 陈爽, 王丹, 吴剑平, 高群. 城市增长边界分析方法研究——以长江三角洲常州市为例[J]. 自然资源学报, 2012, 27(2): 322-331.

SU Wei-zhong, YANG Gui-shan, CHEN Shuang, WANG Dan, WU Jian-ping, GAO Qun. Analysis Method of Urban Growth Boundary of the Changzhou City in the Yangtze River Delta[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2012, 27(2): 322-331.

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城市增长边界分析方法研究——以长江三角洲常州市为例

Analysis Method of Urban Growth Boundary of the Changzhou City in the Yangtze River Delta

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