自然资源学报

自然资源学报 ›› 2012, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (2): 268-280.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2012.02.010

• 资源评价 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国近半个世纪地面太阳总辐射时空变化特征

马金玉1,2, 罗勇3,5, 梁宏4, 李世奎4   

  1. 1. 南京信息工程大学 大气科学学院,南京 210044;
    2. 中国气象局 工程咨询中心, 北京 100081;
    3. 清华大学 地球系统科学研究中心,北京 10008;
    4. 中国气象科学研究院,北京 100081;
    5. 国家气候中心,北京 100081
  • 收稿日期:2011-03-21 修回日期:2011-06-02 出版日期:2012-02-20 发布日期:2012-02-20
  • 通讯作者: 罗勇(1965- ),男,四川成都人,研究员,博士生导师,主要从事气候系统模式的研制以及气候变化预估与归因研究。 E-mail:yongluo@mail.tsinghua.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:马金玉(1982- ),女,云南大理人,博士,主要从事气候资源及太阳能预报研究。E-mail: mjy0525@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金青年科学基金(40905038);国家自然科学基金(40775020);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY200706030)。

Spatial and Temporal Variation of Total Solar Radiation in China in Recent 50 Years

MA Jin-yu1,2, LUO Yong3,5, LIANG Hong4, LI Shi-kui4   

  1. 1. Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Department of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing 210044, China;
    2. Engineering Consulting Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China;
    3. Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 10008;
    4. Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science, Beijing 100081, China;
    5. National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China
  • Received:2011-03-21 Revised:2011-06-02 Online:2012-02-20 Published:2012-02-20

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18 | 11

摘要： 论文利用近半个世纪(1961—2009年)全国58个气象站的地面太阳总辐射观测资料,采用线性倾向估计、小波分析和Mann-Kendall检验等方法,分析了近50 a来全国及区域地面太阳总辐射的年际、季节长期变化趋势特征、年代际距平、周期和突变点。结果表明:全国58个站点地面年太阳总辐射的长期变化趋势主要呈变化不明显和下降明显,分别占总站点数的50.0%和46.6%,且具有一定的气候地带性和局地差异。省级大城市的站点中,下降明显的站点约占该类站点数的三分之二,而其他城市以变化不明显的站点居多。从年代际距平看,在20世纪60年代和70年代,呈上升趋势的站点占总站点数的比例分别约为80%和50%;在80年代,以下降的站点居多,占80%以上;90年代至今,以下降趋势的站点居多,约占50%,但有30%左右的站点为上升明显。从季节的长期变化趋势看,除冬季以下降明显为主以外,春、夏、秋季均以变化不明显为主。从变化周期看,年际周期为6~9 a,年代际周期为10~13 a和20~23 a,但其周期在各气候带有异同。发生突变的时间也具有一定的地带性,各带突变时间有差异。

关键词: 太阳总辐射, 线性倾向估计, Mann-Kendall检验, 小波分析

Abstract: The global radiation data (1961-2009) from 58 meteorological stations is applied to analyze the global radiation characteristics with the annual and seasonal long-term trend, the decadal deviation percentage, the period and mutations by the liner-trend estimation, wavelet analysis and Mann-Kendall (M-K) test. The results show that the stations which decline significantly and change a little are respectively 50.0% and 46.6%. The trend in many sites is different with diverse climate zones. Among provincial capitals, about 2/3 stations decline obviously; the stations which change a little predominate in other cities. In terms of the decadal deviation percentage, the main trend in the 1960s is ascent, being about 80% of the total stations. In the 1970s, approximately 50% of the stations show ascent tendency. In the 1980s the number of the declining trend predominates, being over 80%. From 2001 to 2009, the national radiation trend is mainly decent, being about 50%, but 30% of the stations rises obviously. As for the annual trend of the seasonal global variations, the stations which significantly decrease occur in winter, while the changing trend is insignificant in spring, summer and autumn. The major cycles are 6-9 a, 10-13 a and 20-23 a, meanwhile the principal cycle and subordinate cycle in different climate zones have similarities and differences. In recent 50 years, the sudden change periods also have zonality with difference.

Key words: surface total radiation, linear trend estimation method, Mann-Kendall test, wavelet analysis

中图分类号: 

  • P422.1