自然资源学报 ›› 2012, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (2): 204-214.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2012.02.004

• 资源安全 • 上一篇    下一篇

水资源安全评价模型构建与应用——以福建省泉州市为例

高媛媛1, 王红瑞1, 许新宜1, 高雄1, 史秋阳2   

  1. 1. 北京师范大学 水科学研究院 水沙科学教育部重点实验室,北京 100875;
    2. 北京师范大学 数学科学学院,北京 100875
  • 收稿日期:2011-03-16 修回日期:2011-08-18 出版日期:2012-02-20 发布日期:2012-02-20
  • 通讯作者: 王红瑞 E-mail:henrywang@bnu.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:高媛媛(1985- ),女,安徽人,博士生,专业方向为水资源系统分析。
  • 基金资助:

    水利部节水型社会建设项目"水综节水[2007]4号"。

Assessment of Water Resources Security—Case of Quanzhou City in Fujian Province

GAO Yuan-yuan1, WANG Hong-rui1, XU Xin-yi1, GAO Xiong1, SHI Qiu-yang2   

  1. 1. College of Water Sciences, Key Laboratory for Water and Sediment Science of Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;
    2. College of Mathematics, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
  • Received:2011-03-16 Revised:2011-08-18 Online:2012-02-20 Published:2012-02-20

摘要: 作为东南沿海的重要城市之一,泉州市在经济社会迅速发展的形势下,水资源可持续利用面临前所未有的压力。论文采用改进的层次分析法及基于因子分析的聚类分析法,对泉州市各县(区、市)2008年的水资源安全状况进行评价与分析,并评价了2000—2008年泉州市的水资源安全变化趋势,对2015及2020年的水资源安全进行预测。主要研究结论为:水资源处于安全状况的地区为德化县、永春县、安溪县;基本安全的地区为南安市、洛江区及泉港区;处于不安全的为鲤城区、丰泽区、惠安县;处于严重不安全的地区为晋江市和石狮市。评价年份内,2000年水资源安全保障程度最高,2004年水资源安全程度最低。在P=75%和P=90%的情况下,2015和2020年泉州市面临的水资源压力很大。针对泉州市经济社会发展、水资源特点及开发利用特征,提出了提高水资源安全保障程度的措施。

关键词: 水资源安全, 改进层次分析法, 因子分析, 聚类分析, 泉州市

Abstract: Water resources are basic natural resources and strategic economic resources. As one of the important cities of southeast coastal China, the rapid development of economy and society has caused unprecedented pressure to the sustainable utilization of water resources of Quanzhou. Based on the principle of combining subjective with objective, two mathematical approaches were chosen and applied, one of which is the improved analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the other is Cluster Analysis based on Factor Analysis in this study. The main conclusions are as following. The regions with secure water resources were Dehua County, Yongchun County and Anxi County. The regions with basically secure water resources were Nan'an City, Luojiang Borough and Quangang Borough. And the regions ranked into the categorizes of insecure water resources were Huian County, Licheng and Fengze Borough. Jinjiang City and Shishi City were the regions ranked into the categorizes of severely insecure water resources. From the year 2000 to 2004, the water resources security value had a downtrend. From 2004 to 2006, the situation had a improvement, and after that, the value began to decline again. If 2015 and 2020 are dry or extraordinary dry years, Quanzhou City would be confronted by great water stress. The factors drove the different water resources security levels for different regions were analyzed. Some measures and accesses to achieve the sustainable water resources utilization and improve the water resources security were given and proposed.

Key words: water resources security, improved analytic hierarchy process, factor analysis, cluster analysis, Quanzhou City

中图分类号: 

  • TV213.9