• 资源利用与管理 •

中国三类自然资本的关键性检验与分析:1949—2007年

1. 中国社会科学院 城市发展与环境研究所,北京 100005
• 收稿日期:2011-04-24 修回日期:2011-06-10 出版日期:2011-11-20 发布日期:2011-11-20
• 作者简介:熊娜(1983- ),女,湖北武汉人,博士后,近期主要从事低碳经济与区域可持续发展研究。E-mail:tonixiong@163.com
• 基金资助:

国家科技支撑计划(2011BAJ07B07)。

Test for the Criticality of Three Kinds of Natural Capital by China Provincial Panel Data from 1949 to 2007

XIONG Na

1. Institute for Urban and Environmental Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 100005, China
• Received:2011-04-24 Revised:2011-06-10 Online:2011-11-20 Published:2011-11-20

Abstract: Critical natural capital performs important environmental function, which supposed that it is not able to be replaced by artificial capital. So identifying critical natural capital is the precondition of achieving national sustainable development. The research consists of panel data calculation, test of critical natural capital, as well as case analysis. The first of which aims to obtain the times series of regional critical natural capital ecological footprint of 27 areas in China, the second of which tests the irreplaceability of certain kinds of natural capital, such as water, cropland and fossil fuels, and the third of which analyzes influence of natural capital on China’s long-term consumption. In the paper, the conception of critical natural capital is introduced and natural capital referred is finally divided into three aspects, i.e., productive solid, water and energy. Then the framework of domestic ecological footprint theory is utilized in classifying and calculating the natural capital of regions. The hypothesis of the econometric test used here followed Ferreira’s research is that broader estimates of capital provide more information about changes in capital stocks and thus more information about future consumption prospects. Regression turns out that its performance is more sensitive to changes in the time horizon than in capital measures, and that the fit is best for the time horizon with 20 years, in which the probability of physical capital’s coefficient for future consumption prospects decline to 0.0009 from 0.0073 of the regression with 10 years and 0.5511 with 5 years, while the probability of natural capital’s coefficient for future consumption prospects is persistently above 0.4. The findings prove the irreplaceability by physical capital of critical natural capital, consisted of productive solid, water and energy. In the 20 years’ model, the negative coefficient of natural capital for future consumption prospects predicts the unsustainable utilization pattern of natural capital in the nation, in that domestic ecological footprint theory emphases on exploration of local resources. Additionally, the South-to-North Water Diversion project has been analyzed according to the findings of the research by operating the 20 years’ regression with the data of changing in water ecological footprint of relative regions. As a result of the South-to-North Water Diversion project, the changed distribution of resource will relieve the burdens of hardships in the development of water-receiving areas, which are at the cost of the decrease in the source area of reservoirs.

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