江苏农业资源优化利用的非线性分析

doi:10.11849/zrzyxb.2011.08.002

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

农业适度规模经营是解决农业资源优化利用最有效的手段之一,也是缩小城乡差距、保障国家稳定的最有力措施。研究以江苏省为例,在对其农业规模化的可能性和必然性论证的基础上,运用非线性模型探讨发达地区在保障粮食自给率达到80%以上的前提下,如何实现农业规模经济的稳定增长及其最适增长空间。结果表明,对于拥有良好农业资源和厚实经济基础的江苏,最适粮食自给率应维持在82.5%~84.9%之间,此时的粮食作物、一般经济作物和高效经济作物最佳用地比为68:20:12。在现有规模化水平上,规模经济的最适增长潜力界于6.40%~7.54%之间。此外,非线性模型能较好地模拟出不同粮食自给率下的江苏省农业规模化曲线,确定不同类型的作物用地空间及经济收益,其结果符合江苏省农业发展的特征,对江苏农业的规模化发展具有较强的辐射性,该方法可用于对类似地区农业资源优化利用分析。

关键词: 农业规模化, 非线性模型, 粮食自给率, 江苏

Abstract:

Moderate scale of agricultural operation is one of the most effective means to solve the "san nong" problem, narrow the gap between rural and urban areas, and safeguard national stability. On the basis of demonstrating the possibility and inevitability of the agricultural scale in Jiangsu Province, we use the nonlinear model to discuss how to realize the steady and optimum growth space of the agricultural scale economy under the premise that self-sufficient rate of grain achieve 80% in developed area. Researches show that the appropriate food self-sufficient rate should maintain at 82.5%-84.9% in Jiangsu Province where there are good agricultural resources and the economic basis, and the best proportion of the cultivated area among grain crops, general economic crops and efficient economic crops is 68:20:12. Under the existing agricultural development level, the optimum growth potential of the scale economies should be ranging between 6.40% and 7.54%. In addition, the nonlinear model can well simulate agricultural scale curve of different self-sufficient rates of grain in Jiangsu Province and determine the land space and economic benefits of the different types of crops and economic benefits. The research results accord with the characteristics of agricultural development, which has significant influence on agricultural scale development of Jiangsu Province and other similar areas.

Key words: scale of agricultural, non-linear model, grain self-sufficiency rate, Jiangsu

中图分类号:

F323.2

方斌, 吴金凤, 倪绍祥. 江苏农业资源优化利用的非线性分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2011, 26(8): 1278-1286.

FANG Bin, WU Jin-feng, NI Shao-xiang. Non-linear Analysis of Optimum Utilization of Agricultural Resource in Jiangsu Province[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2011, 26(8): 1278-1286.

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