自然资源学报

自然资源学报 ›› 2011, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (7): 1209-1216.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2011.07.013

• 资源评价 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于因素分解模型的水资源利用变动分析

张强, 王本德, 曹明亮   

  1. 大连理工大学 建设工程学部水利学院水资源与防洪研究所, 辽宁 大连 116024
  • 收稿日期:2010-08-25 修回日期:2011-01-12 出版日期:2011-07-20 发布日期:2011-07-20
  • 作者简介:张强(1981- ),男,甘肃兰州人,博士生,主要研究方向水资源可持续利用。E-mail: zhangqing0517@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    十一五科技支持计划课题(2007BAB28B01)。

Analysis of Water Resource Utilization Change Based on Factor Decomposition Model

ZHANG Qiang, WANG Ben-de, CAO Ming-liang   

  1. Department of Water Resources and Flood Control, School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering, Faculty of Infrastructure Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024, China
  • Received:2010-08-25 Revised:2011-01-12 Online:2011-07-20 Published:2011-07-20

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33 | 10

摘要： 残差项的存在影响了因素分解模型对水资源利用驱动效应的量化效果,论文引入无残差的对数平均迪氏分解法(LMDI),对大连市1980—2009年间的水资源利用变动进行了分析,将其影响因素分解为:定额效应、产业结构变动效应、经济规模效应及人口效应,并与常用的3种非完全因素分解模型的结果进行对比。最后选择LMDI完全分解的结果对大连市水资源利用变动的特征进行分析。结果表明:①LMDI法的分解效果最好,残差为0;②经济效应和人口效应为水资源利用的拉动效应,其中,经济效应为主要因素;定额效应和产业结构变动效应为水资源利用的抑制效应,其中,定额效应为主要因素;③2005年之后,大连市社会经济对用水的拉动进一步加剧,现有节水能力显出疲态。

关键词: 水资源利用变动, 因素分解, LMDI, 大连市

Abstract: In order to guide water-demand management better, it is an urgent need to study the mechanism of water resource utilization change. Index decomposition methodology is an effective technique used to study the mechanism of resource utilization change. But many index decomposition methods have a problem which is the existence of a residual in the decomposition result, so a completely decomposition method: logarithmic mean divisia index method (LMDI) is introduced in this paper. And influencing factors of water resource utilization change in Dalian between 1980 and 2009 are decomposed into four kinds of effect: quota effect, industrial structure effect, economic effect and population effect based on three types of general factor decomposition model and LMDI model. The results show that: 1) LMDI has the best decomposition effect, its residual was 0. 2) Economic effect and population effect are the pushing effects on water resource utilization, and economic effect plays a main role. Quota effect and industrial structure effect are the inhibitory effects on water resource utilization, and quota effect is the main factor. 3) From the game between total pushing effects and inhibitory effects, water-saving capacity can adapt to water demand in 1980-2005; after 2005, water-saving capacity can no longer meet the water demand which is fast growing.

Key words: water resource utilization change, factor decomposition analysis, LMDI, Dalian

中图分类号: 

  • TV213