自然资源学报

自然资源学报 ›› 2011, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (6): 1001-1011.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2011.06.011

• 资源评价 • 上一篇    下一篇

北京地区近300年降水变化的小波分析

李淼1,2, 夏军1, 陈社明3, 孟德娟1,2   

  1. 1. 中国科学院 陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室 地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101;
    2. 中国科学院 研究生院,北京 100049;
    3. 吉林大学 环境与资源学院,长春 130026
  • 收稿日期:2010-11-17 修回日期:2011-04-15 出版日期:2011-06-20 发布日期:2011-06-20
  • 作者简介:李淼(1982- ),男(汉族),山西太原人,博士研究生。E-mail: limiao108@gmail.com; lim.09b@igsnrr.ac.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家重点基础研究973项目(2010CB428406)"气候变化对我国东部季风区陆地水循环与水资源安全的影响及适应对策";国家自然科学基金重点项目(40730632)。

Wavelet Analysis on Annual Precipitation around 300 Years in Beijing Area

LI Miao1,2, XIA Jun1, CHEN She-ming3, MENG De-juan1,2   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    2. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;
    3. College of Environment and Resources, Jilin University, Changchun 130026, China
  • Received:2010-11-17 Revised:2011-04-15 Online:2011-06-20 Published:2011-06-20

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摘要： 利用北京地区1724—2009年降水资料,首先做了趋势分析和突变检验,之后采用Morlet小波函数,对该地区近300 a来降水的年际变化时间序列进行了小波分析,揭示了该区降水变化的多时间尺度的周期性变化规律,并根据主周期对未来降水变化进行了预测。结果表明,北京地区年降水量有缓慢增大的趋势,但并不显著。1744、1809、1894和1996年为该系列降雨量减少突变点,1777、1870和1948年为降雨量增多突变点。同时北京地区年降水量在其计算时域内各时间尺度分布不均匀,具有明显的局部化特征;年降水存在85~95 a左右时间尺度的周期特征;其次,35~40 a和20~25 a左右时间尺度的周期特征也较明显。降水量在不同时间尺度下偏多、偏少交替变化也各不相同。此外,分析结果显示该地区年降水量具有21 a、35 a和85 a左右的主周期,其中85 a周期为第一主周期;根据年降水的主周期推测,北京地区整个时间序列上的年降水量呈现出偏少—偏多—偏少—偏多—偏少—偏多—偏少的循环交替特征,根据其周期特征,可以推测2009年到2030年左右将一直处于少降水期。

关键词: 突变检验, 小波分析, 北京地区, 降水变化, 多时间尺度

Abstract: After making trend analysis and abrupt change analysis, a morlet wavelet analysis was used in this study for analyzing precipitation annual variability in about 300 years in Beijing Area. The complex construction of precipitation variability was revealed and precipitation period and mutation in multiple time scale was analyzed, finally a forecast about precipitation variability was made according to the main period. It is found that there exists a slowly increasing but non-significant trend for annual precipitation in Beijing Area, and the years of 1744, 1809, 1894 and 1996 are abrupt change points of annual precipitation reduction, while 1777, 1870 and 1948 are abrupt change points of annual rainfall increasing. Furthermore, the annual precipitation series in Beijing Area represents a non-uniform time-scale distribution in its calculation period with obvious local features. There exists a characteristic period of about 85-95 years for annual precipitation, while the periodic characteristics of 35-40 and 20-25 years are also relatively obvious. There are more or less alternatives changes in average precipitation at different time scales. Moreover, the analysis results show that there are main periods of 21 years, 35 years, and 85 years of which the 85-year period is the first order main period in this area. According to the first order main period, there will be a state of less precipitation in a period of 85 years after 2009 in Beijing Area.

Key words: abrupt change test, wavelet analysis, Beijing Area, precipitation variability, multiple time scale

中图分类号: 

  • P426.6