自然资源学报 ›› 2011, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (6): 901-909.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2011.06.001

• 理论探讨 •    下一篇

我国需水总量零增长问题研究

何希吾, 顾定法, 唐青蔚   

  1. 中国科学院 地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101
  • 收稿日期:2011-01-13 修回日期:2011-03-18 出版日期:2011-06-20 发布日期:2011-06-20
  • 作者简介:何希吾(1937- ),男,福建省福清市人,研究员,研究方向为水资源开发利用、保护、规划与管理。致谢: 参加研究工作的还有陈远生、翁建武、蒋艳玲、李立群、王莹、王蓓卿、郝泽嘉、蒋蕾、李璐、朱龙腾、王瑛等。
  • 基金资助:

    中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所支持的自选项目。

Study on Zero Growth Problem in Total Water Demand of China

HE Xi-wu, GU Ding-fa, TANG Qing-wei   

  1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
  • Received:2011-01-13 Revised:2011-03-18 Online:2011-06-20 Published:2011-06-20

摘要: 一个国家需水总量零增长问题,是其水资源长期供求预测的重要内容,也是水资源需求量管理工作的重要组成部分,具有前瞻性和战略性的重要意义。研究通过分析国内外经济发达国家和地区的第三产业在三次产业结构中的比例与总需水量的关系,采用"产业结构分析法"探讨我国需水总量零增长可能出现的时期和需水总量的最大值。据此法分析,一个国家或地区的第三产业GDP占三次产业总量的比重达到60%左右时,其总需水量可能达到零增长(或负增长)。我国到2026—2030年左右全国需水量可能进入零增长期,需求量最大值将达到6 300×108 m3左右。

关键词: 我国需水总量, 零增长, 产业结构分析法

Abstract: The research of zero growth problems in water demand for a country is not only an important content of its long-term prediction of the supply and demand of water resources,but also an important part of water demand management, which makes such research of forward-looking and strategic significance. This paper analyzes the relationship between the ratio of tertiary industry in GDP and the total water demands in developed countries and regions,and investigates when the zero growth in total water demand of China would come true and the maximum amount of water demand through the method of "industrial structure analysis". According to this method, when the proportion of tertiary industry in GDP of a country or a region reaches 60% around,the total water demand would realize zero growth (or negative growth). The total water demand of China would reach zero growth during 2026 to 2030, with the maximum amount of around 630 billion m3.

Key words: total water demand of China, zero growth, industrial structure analysis

中图分类号: 

  • TV211.1