• 资源评价 •

基于STIRPAT模型的能源消费碳足迹变化及影响因素——以江苏省苏锡常地区为例

1. 南京农业大学 公共管理学院,南京 210095
• 收稿日期:2010-09-12 修回日期:2010-11-20 出版日期:2011-05-20 发布日期:2011-05-20
• 通讯作者: 冯淑怡(1973- ),女,江苏东台人,副教授,博士,主要研究方向为资源经济与可持续发展。E-mail: shuyifeng@njau.edu.cn E-mail:shuyifeng@njau.edu.cn
• 作者简介:卢娜(1982- ),女,河北正定人,博士研究生,主要研究方向为资源经济与可持续发展。E-mail: lunaluckyforever@163.com
• 基金资助:

国家自然科学基金重点项目"农村发展中生态环境管理研究"(70833001);江苏省"青蓝工程"资助。

Trends and Determining Factors of Energy Consumption Carbon Footprint —An Analysis for Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou Region Based on STIRPAT Model

LU Na, QU Fu-tian, FENG Shu-yi, SHAO Xue-lan

1. College of Public Administration, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China
• Received:2010-09-12 Revised:2010-11-20 Online:2011-05-20 Published:2011-05-20

Abstract: Improving the understanding of the impact of socio-economic development on energy consumption carbon footprint is of great importance for developing low-carbon economy. This paper calculated and analyzed the trend of energy consumption carbon footprint of Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou region during the period of 1991—2008. Applying ridge regression method, the STIRPAT model was estimated to explore the relationships between population, per capita GDP, technological development and energy consumption carbon footprint. The decoupling index was adopted to further analyze the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption carbon footprint. Results indicated that: 1) For Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou region, energy consumption carbon footprint has increased from 0.05 hm2 per capita in 1991 to 0.58 hm2 per capita in 2008. The annual average increasing rate was 15.30%. Coal consumption accounted for the largest share in energy consumption carbon footprint. The share in 2008 was 96.18%. Petroleum consumption fluctuated and showed a downward trend, the share decreased from 18.71% to 3.42% from 1991 to 2008. Different from petroleum, natural gas consumption rose very fast. Even though the share was only 0.40% in 2008, the annual average increasing rate was 45.40% since the extension of natural gas in 2002. The value of carbon footprint showed an overall fluctuating downward tendency, indicating a large space for energy efficiency improvement. 2) Economic development was the main driving factor for energy consumption carbon footprint. 1% increase of per capita GDP has resulted in 0.73% increase in energy consumption carbon footprint. The relationship between per capita GDP and energy consumption carbon footprint, however, did not prove the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC), indicating that with the socio-economic development, environmental pressure caused by energy consumption will continuously increasing. 3) The decoupling index was fluctuating, either in the state of relative decoupling or in re-coupling, indicating that economic growth was highly dependent on energy consumption, and verifying that EKC hypothesis does not exist. Compared with Suzhou and Wuxi, Changzhou has displayed a decoupling state between economic growth and energy consumption carbon footprint since 1998.

• F426