关键词: 工业经济, 能源消费碳足迹, STIRPAT模型, 脱钩指数, 苏锡常

Abstract: Improving the understanding of the impact of socio-economic development on energy consumption carbon footprint is of great importance for developing low-carbon economy. This paper calculated and analyzed the trend of energy consumption carbon footprint of Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou region during the period of 1991—2008. Applying ridge regression method, the STIRPAT model was estimated to explore the relationships between population, per capita GDP, technological development and energy consumption carbon footprint. The decoupling index was adopted to further analyze the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption carbon footprint. Results indicated that: 1) For Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou region, energy consumption carbon footprint has increased from 0.05 hm² per capita in 1991 to 0.58 hm² per capita in 2008. The annual average increasing rate was 15.30%. Coal consumption accounted for the largest share in energy consumption carbon footprint. The share in 2008 was 96.18%. Petroleum consumption fluctuated and showed a downward trend, the share decreased from 18.71% to 3.42% from 1991 to 2008. Different from petroleum, natural gas consumption rose very fast. Even though the share was only 0.40% in 2008, the annual average increasing rate was 45.40% since the extension of natural gas in 2002. The value of carbon footprint showed an overall fluctuating downward tendency, indicating a large space for energy efficiency improvement. 2) Economic development was the main driving factor for energy consumption carbon footprint. 1% increase of per capita GDP has resulted in 0.73% increase in energy consumption carbon footprint. The relationship between per capita GDP and energy consumption carbon footprint, however, did not prove the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC), indicating that with the socio-economic development, environmental pressure caused by energy consumption will continuously increasing. 3) The decoupling index was fluctuating, either in the state of relative decoupling or in re-coupling, indicating that economic growth was highly dependent on energy consumption, and verifying that EKC hypothesis does not exist. Compared with Suzhou and Wuxi, Changzhou has displayed a decoupling state between economic growth and energy consumption carbon footprint since 1998.

Key words: industrial economy, energy consumption carbon footprint, STIRPAT model, decoupling index, Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou region