关键词: 畜禽, 养殖方式, 区域差异

Abstract: The output of China's meat and eggs for many years ranked first in the world, and livestock husbandry has become a significant industry in China. The pattern of the livestock farming in China has changed from free-range farms to scale farms, which has influenced a lot in the demand of the industrial feedstuff and soybean meal. Based on the systematic analysis of farming patterns and their influencing factors, this paper studied the dynamic mechanism and stage evolution process of livestock farming patterns in China; and also made the quantitative simulation of the hog, egg and broiler in the main production areas according to construction of the Logistic Function. The results showed the followings: 1) The changes of farming patterns generally experienced low-speed transformation in the early stage, rapid transformation in the medium-term stage, slow developing process in the later period and the stage of the total intensive farming. 2) The suburban areas with rapid economic development cities such as Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai have almost accomplished the transformation process, and the developing trend in these areas will be highly efficient, pollution-free and sustainable in the future; the areas such as Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning own good agriculture resource conditions, and the suburban areas of the relatively high level of economic development provinces such as Shandong, Hebei, Jiangsu, Guangdong and Henan, are at the stage of rapid-speed transformation; however, most regions in the Central and Western China are in the early stage of the evolution process and the transformation speed is relatively slow. 3) On the whole, hog farming patterns went through the transition from the stage of low-speed transformation to medium-term stage of rapid transformation, and at present, farming patterns are still in the medium-term stage of rapid transformation in most of the major hog producing provinces, so the farming level is relatively low during the period, but the room for the growth will be much bigger in the future. However, the broilers and layers both are in the late stage of slow transformation, and the intensive farming industry is relatively developed but it's difficult to promote more. 4) The main reason that soybean demand rapidly increases in the past ten years is the change of livestock farming patterns. The scale of live hog farming in Central and Western China will constantly increase in the next decade. Meanwhile, the slaughter of live hog, broilers and layers will continue to rise in most regions. So the gap between soybean supply and demand will continually expand with the limited production capacity of domestic soybean.

Key words: livestock, farming patterns, regional differences