气候变暖背景下安徽省冬小麦产量对气候要素变化的响应

doi:10.11849/zrzyxb.2011.01.007

自然资源学报 ›› 2011, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (1): 66-78.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2011.01.007

气候变暖背景下安徽省冬小麦产量对气候要素变化的响应

唐为安¹, 田红¹, 陈晓艺², 温华洋¹, 丁霞¹, 徐光清¹

1. 安徽省气候中心, 合肥 230031;
2. 安徽省气象科学研究所, 合肥 230031

收稿日期:2010-04-09 修回日期:2010-08-31 出版日期:2011-01-30 发布日期:2011-01-30
作者简介:唐为安(1980- ),男,江苏阜宁人,工程师,硕士,主要从事气候变化及其对农业影响研究。E-mail: tomine123@yahoo.com.cn
基金资助:
中国气象局2009年气候变化专项"华东区域气候变化影响评估报告"(CCSF-09-10);安徽省气象局面上项目(KM0902)。

Response of Winter Wheat Yield to Climate Change under Global Warming in Anhui Province

TANG Wei-an¹, TIAN Hong¹, CHEN Xiao-yi², WEN Hua-yang¹, DING Xia¹, XU Guang-qing¹

1. Anhui Province Climate Center, Hefei 230031, China;
2. Anhui Institute of Meteorological Science, Hefei 230031, China

Received:2010-04-09 Revised:2010-08-31 Online:2011-01-30 Published:2011-01-30

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 论文在分析安徽省近47 a(1961—2007年)来气候要素及冬小麦产量变化特征,确定产量突变点的基础上,采用相关分析,提取影响产量形成的气候因子,构建安徽省冬小麦气候产量模型,并利用该模型定量地估算了近47 a来气候要素变化对冬小麦产量的贡献率。结果表明:安徽省冬小麦生长季内的平均气温增暖趋势明显,降水量无明显变化趋势,但年际波动大,日照时数呈显著下降趋势。越冬期最高气温、返青期最低气温和灌浆期日照时数与产量呈显著正相关,灌浆期降水量与产量呈显著负相关。近47 a来,气候要素变化对冬小麦产量存在微弱的负贡献,贡献率为-5.89％。冬小麦生长季内一定程度的暖干化条件有利于产量的增加。

关键词: 气候变暖, Mann-Kendall法, 冬小麦产量

Abstract: In order to study the impacts of climate change on winter wheat yield under global warming, the contribution of climate change to winter wheat yield was analyzed in the north of Anhui Province. Based on the determination of the mutation point of winter wheat yield from the analysis of characteristics of climate elements and winter wheat yield, the extraction of climate factors that related with yield and the establishment of the climatic yield model using regression, the contribution rate of climate change to winter wheat yield was calculated quantitatively by the model for the north of Anhui Province from 1961 to 2007. The result showed that: average temperature had a significant increase, precipitation had unobvious trend but significant fluctuation, and sunshine had a significant decrease during the growing period of winter wheat in the north of Anhui Province. Over-wintering stage maximum temperature, regreening stage minimum temperature and grain-filling stage sunshine were significantly positively correlated with wheat yield, but grain-filling stage precipitation was significantly negatively correlated with wheat yield. In the past 47 years, over-wintering maximum temperature and regreening stage minimum temperature had risen by 0.028 ℃·10 a^-1 and 0.855 ℃·10 a^-1, grain-filling stage precipitation and sunshine had decreased by -1.157 mm·10 a^-1 and -2.695 h·10 a^-1.The climate change had a weak negative contribution to winter wheat yield and the contribution rate was -5.89％.In this paper, the climatic yield model could reflect the contribution of climate change to winter wheat yield in the north of Anhui Province in the past 47 years. A certain degree of warm and dry climatic conditions was beneficial for winter wheat yield formation during the winter wheat yield growing period.

Key words: climate warming, Mann-Kendall, yield of winter wheat

中图分类号:

S162.5

唐为安, 田红, 陈晓艺, 温华洋, 丁霞, 徐光清. 气候变暖背景下安徽省冬小麦产量对气候要素变化的响应[J]. 自然资源学报, 2011, 26(1): 66-78.

TANG Wei-an, TIAN Hong, CHEN Xiao-yi, WEN Hua-yang, DING Xia, XU Guang-qing. Response of Winter Wheat Yield to Climate Change under Global Warming in Anhui Province[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2011, 26(1): 66-78.

参考文献

[1] Solomon S, Qin Dahe, Manning M, et al. IPCC. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group Ⅰ to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007. [2] Parry M, Rosenzweig C, Livermore M. Climate change, global food supply and risk of hunger [J]. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B, 2005, 360(1463): 2125-2138. [3] Rosenzweig C, Parry M. Potential impact of climate change on world food supply [J]. Nature, 1994, 367: 133-138. [4] Fischer G, Shah M, Tubiello F N, et al. Socio-economic and climate change impacts on agriculture: An integrated assessment, 1990-2080 [J]. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B, 2005, 360(1463): 2067-2083. [5] Brown R A, Rosenberg N J. Sensitivity of crop yield and water use to change in a range of climatic factors and CO₂ concentrations: A simulation study applying EPIC to the central USA [J]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 1997, 83: 171-203. [6] Reilly J, Tubiello F, McCarl B, et al. U.S. agriculture and climate change: New results [J]. Climatic Change, 2003, 57: 43-69. [7] Lin E D, Xiong W, Ju H, et al. Climate change impacts on crop yield and quality with CO₂ fertilization in China [J]. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B, 2005, 360(1463): 2149-2154. [8] Luo Q Y, Bellotti W, William S M, et al. Potential impact of climate change on wheat yield in South Australia [J]. Agriculture and Forest Meteorology, 2005, 132: 273-285. [9] Song Y L, Chen D L, Dong W J, et al. Influence of climate on winter wheat productivity in different climate regions of China, 1961-2000 [J]. Climate Research, 2006, 32(3): 219-227. [10] 丛振涛, 王舒展, 倪广恒. 气候变化对冬小麦潜在产量影响的模型模拟分析[J]. 清华大学学报: 自然科学版, 2008, 48(9): 47-50. [11] David B Lobell, Gregory P Asner. Climate and management contributions to recent trends in U.S. agricultural yields [J]. Science, 2003, 299: 1032. [12] Carter C, Zhang B. Weather factor and variability in China’s grain supply [J]. J. Comparative Econ., 1998, 26: 529-543. [13] Peng S B, Huang J, Sheehy J E, et al. Rice yields decline with higher night temperature from global warming [J]. Proc. National Academies of Science USA, 2004, 101: 9971-9975. [14] Naylor R, Falcon W, Wada N, et al. Using El Nio-southern oscillation climate data to improve food policy planning in Indonesia [J]. Bulletin Indonesian Economic Studies, 2002, 38: 75-88. [15] Liang Z Y, Mark W Rosegrant, Cheng F, et al. Impact of globe warming on Chinese wheat productivity . http://www.ifpri.org/divs/eptd/dp/papers/eptdp143.pdf. [16] 方修琦, 王媛, 徐锬, 等. 近20年气候变暖对黑龙江省水稻增产的贡献[J]. 地理学报, 2004, 59(6): 820-828. [17] Gerhard Zuba, Oscar Vergara, Tim Doggett. Using the air weather index to estimate the contribution of climate to corn and soybean yields in the U.S. . http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/bitstream/35613/1/sp05zu01.pdf. [18] Gu Lian-hong. Comment on "Climate and management contributions to recent trends in U.S. agricultural yields" [J]. Science, 2003, 300: 1505. [19] David B Lobell, Gregory P Asner. Response on comment on "Climate and management contributions to recent trends in U.S. agricultural yields" [J]. Science, 2003, 300: 1505. [20] 张宇, 王石立, 王馥堂. 气候变化对我国小麦发育及产量可能影响的模拟研究[J]. 应用气象学报, 2000, 11(3): 264-270. [21] 安徽省统计局. 安徽统计年鉴(1962—2008) [M]. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 1962-2008. [22] Nicholls N. Increased Australian wheat yield due to recent climate trends [J]. Nature, 1997, 387: 484-485. [23] 王馥堂. 农业气象预报概论[M]. 北京: 农业出版社, 2000. [24] Christopher J Kucharik, Shawn P Serbin. Impacts of recent climate change on Wisconsin corn and soybean yield trends [J]. Environ. Res. Lett., 2008, 3: 034003. [25] 王媛, 方修琦, 徐锬. 气候变化背景下"气候产量"计算方法的探讨[J]. 自然资源学报, 2004, 19(4): 531-536. [26] David B Lobell, Christopher B Field. Global scale climate-crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming [J]. Environ. Res. Lett., 2007, 2: 014002. [27] 魏凤英. 现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 2007: 63-66. [28] 杨素英, 孙凤华, 马建中. 增暖背景下中国东北地区极端降水事件的演变特征[J]. 地理科学, 2008, 28(2): 224-228. [29] Su B D, Xiao B, Zhu D, et al. Trends in frequency of precipitation extremes in the Yangtze River Basin, China: 1960-2003 [J]. Hydrol. Sci. J., 2005, 50(3): 479-492. [30] 李月英, 柳斌辉, 刘全喜, 等. 河北低平原气候条件对冬小麦产量的影响[J]. 麦类学报, 2009, 29(2): 330-334. [31] 马晓群, 陈晓艺, 盛邵学. 安徽省冬小麦渍涝灾害损失评估模型研究[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2003, 12(1): 158-162. [32] 魏瑞江, 张文宗, 李二杰. 河北省冬小麦生育期气象条件定量评价模型[J]. 中国农业气象, 2007, 28(4): 367-370. [33] 邱新法, 曾燕. 影响我国冬小麦产量的气象要素研究[J]. 中国农业气象, 2001, 22(4): 11-14. [34] 翟武全. 中国气象灾害大典(安徽卷)[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 2007: 62-63.

气候变暖背景下安徽省冬小麦产量对气候要素变化的响应

Response of Winter Wheat Yield to Climate Change under Global Warming in Anhui Province

PDF (PC)

赞

可视化

被引次数

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 15

Metrics

本文评价

推荐阅读 0

[1]	马尚谦, 张勃, 杨文义, 杨梅, 魏堃, 李帅, 何航, 候启, 魏怀东. 1960-2015年淮河流域异常初、终霜日时空变化及其影响因子[J]. 自然资源学报, 2019, 34(2): 359-373.
[2]	柳媛普, 王素萍, 王劲松, 王芝兰. 气候变暖背景下西南地区干旱灾害风险评估[J]. 自然资源学报, 2018, 33(2): 325-336.
[3]	刘永婷, 徐光来, 尹周祥, 胡晨琦, 王原, 廖富强. 全球变化背景下安徽近55 a气温时空变化特征[J]. 自然资源学报, 2017, 32(4): 680-691.
[4]	陈超, 庞艳梅, 张玉芳, 陈东东. 四川冬小麦产量对气候变化的敏感性和脆弱性研究[J]. 自然资源学报, 2017, 32(1): 127-136.
[5]	王培娟, 韩丽娟, 周广胜, 梁宏. 气候变暖对东北三省春玉米布局的可能影响及其应对策略[J]. 自然资源学报, 2015, 30(8): 1343-1355.
[6]	王鹤龄, 王润元, 张强, 刘德祥, 蒲金涌. 甘肃省作物布局演变及其对区域气候变暖的响应[J]. 自然资源学报, 2012, 27(3): 413-421.
[7]	于延胜, 陈兴伟. 基于Mann-Kendall法的水文序列趋势成分比重研究[J]. 自然资源学报, 2011, 26(9): 1585-1591.
[8]	陈豫英,陈楠,马金仁,陈晓娟. 近48 a宁夏寒潮的变化特征及可能影响的成因初步分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2010, 25(6): 939-951.
[9]	缪启龙, 丁园圆, 王勇, 段春锋. 气候变暖对中国热量资源分布的影响分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2009, 24(5): 934-944.
[10]	陈莉, 方修琦, 李帅, 张海东. 气候变暖对中国夏热冬冷地区居住建筑采暖降温年耗电量的影响[J]. 自然资源学报, 2008, 23(5): 764-772.
[11]	陈莉, 方修睦, 方修琦, 李帅. 过去20年气候变暖对我国冬季采暖气候条件与能源需求的影响[J]. 自然资源学报, 2006, 21(4): 590-597.
[12]	莫兴国, 林忠辉, 刘苏峡. 黄淮海地区冬小麦生产力时空变化及其驱动机制分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2006, 21(3): 449-457,502.
[13]	云雅如, 方修琦, 王媛, 陶军德, 乔佃锋. 黑龙江省过去20年粮食作物种植格局变化及其气候背景[J]. 自然资源学报, 2005, 20(5): 697-705.
[14]	刘德祥, 董安祥, 邓振镛. 中国西北地区气候变暖对农业的影响[J]. 自然资源学报, 2005, 20(1): 119-125.
[15]	刘昌明, 杜伟. 农业水资源配置效果的计算分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 1987, 2(1): 9-19.