自然资源学报 ›› 2011, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (1): 22-33.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2011.01.003

• 资源利用与管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

宁夏城市化与经济增长和环境压力互动关系的动态计量分析

张子龙1,2,3, 陈兴鹏1,3, 逯承鹏1,3, 郭晓佳1,3, 薛冰4   

  1. 1. 兰州大学 资源环境学院, 兰州 73000;
    2. 佛蒙特大学 Gund生态经济研究所, 伯灵顿, VT, 05405, 美国;
    3. 兰州大学 旅游规划设计研究院, 兰州 73000;
    4. 中国科学院 沈阳应用生态研究所, 沈阳 110016
  • 收稿日期:2010-01-24 修回日期:2010-08-09 出版日期:2011-01-30 发布日期:2011-01-30
  • 通讯作者: 陈兴鹏,甘肃庆阳人,博士,教授,博士生导师,中国自然资源学会会员,主要研究方向为生态经济与区域可持续发展。E-mail: chenxp@lzu.edu.cn E-mail:chenxp@lzu.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:张子龙(1982- ),男,新疆伊犁人,博士研究生,主要从事生态经济与资源环境管理研究。E-mail:ziloong.zhang@gmail.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金资助项目(40871061)。

Econometric Analysis of the Dynamic Interaction between Urbanization and Economic Growth and Environmental Pressure: The Case of Ningxia

ZHANG Zi-long1,2,3, CHEN Xing-peng1,3, LU Cheng-peng1,3, GUO Xiao-jia1,3, XUE Bing4   

  1. 1. College of Earth and Environment Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China;
    2. Gund Institute for Ecological Economics, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT 05405, USA;
    3. Institute of Tourism Planning & Design, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 73000, China;
    4. Institute of Apply Ecology,CAS,Shenyang 110016, China
  • Received:2010-01-24 Revised:2010-08-09 Online:2011-01-30 Published:2011-01-30

摘要: 文章首先分析了1985—2005年间宁夏城市化、人均GDP以及环境压力的变化趋势。基于此,运用协整检验、向量误差修正模型和Granger因果检验方法,通过分析城市化与人均GDP,以及环境压力变量之间的长短期因果关系及其强度,阐释了城市化与经济增长和环境压力在时序维度上的相互作用机制及其特征,结果表明:宁夏城市化与经济增长之间不存在Granger因果关系,两者之间还未形成良性互动;城市化与环境压力之间存在单向因果关系,城市化对环境压力的增大具有显著的正向效应,而且在短期内降低环境压力的难度较大。

关键词: 城市化, 经济增长, 环境压力, 计量分析, 宁夏

Abstract: The paper analyzed the evolutionary trajectory of urbanization ratio and economic growth in Ningxia for the 21 years from 1985-2005. And based on emergy theory,the paper evaluated the environmental pressures which were indicated by Environmental Load Rate(ELR) and Emergy Waste Rate(EWR) and respectively represent environmental pressure related to natural resource input and pollution emission. Secondly,by using the time-serial data of urbanization ratio,and per capital GDP and environmental pressure indicators,we applied the Co-integration Test,Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Granger Causality Relationship Test to examine the causal relationship between these variables (urbanization-economic growth and urbanization-environmental pressures). Thirdly,the relative strength of the causality is gauged by Variance Decomposition method which decomposes the total impact of an unanticipated shock to each of the variables beyond the sample period into proportions attributable to shocks in the other variables including its own,in the bivariate system. The results indicate that the urbanization ratio has been increasing constantly,and per capital GDP as well. At the same time,the Environmental pressure has been rising persistently. The findings of econometric analysis indicate that there is no Granger causality between urbanization and economic growth,and the beneficial interaction between them has not formed. For the relationship between urbanization and environmental pressure,temporal causality result was unidirectional causality from urbanization to environmental pressure. But the relative of strength of causality varies from ELR to EWR. Furthermore,it is very difficult to reduce the environmental pressure in the short run for Ningxia.

Key words: urbanization, economic growth, environmental pressure, econometric analysis, Ningxia

中图分类号: 

  • X22