自然资源学报 ›› 2010, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (11): 1823-1833.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2010.11.002

• 资源利用与管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

矿产资源开发对干旱区区域发展影响的动态计量分析——以新疆为例

李雪梅1,2, 张小雷1, 杜宏茹1, 曹建标1,2   

  1. 1. 中国科学院 新疆生态与地理研究所, 乌鲁木齐 830011;
    2. 中国科学院 研究生院, 北京 100049
  • 收稿日期:2009-12-25 修回日期:2010-07-09 出版日期:2010-11-20 发布日期:2010-11-20
  • 作者简介:李雪梅(1983- ),女,博士研究生,主要从事城市与区域规划研究。E-mail: lixuemei0924@126.com
  • 基金资助:

    西部之光人才培养计划(XBBS200812);国家自然科学基金项目(40601032)。

An Analysis of Dynamic Econometric on the Impact of Mineral Resource Exploitation on the Region Development — Take Xinjiang as an Example

LI Xue-mei1,2, ZHANG Xiao-lei1, DU Hong-ru1, CAO Jian-biao1,2   

  1. 1. Xinjiang Institute of Economy and Geography, CAS, Urumqi 830011, China;
    2. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing100049, China
  • Received:2009-12-25 Revised:2010-07-09 Online:2010-11-20 Published:2010-11-20

摘要: 矿产资源开发对区域经济发展、工业化和城市化有着重要的影响,尤其是在矿产资源丰富的区域。论文以新疆为例,分析了区域矿产资源开发、经济发展、工业化和城市化的基本特征,并在此基础上建立动态计量模型,运用协整分析和格兰杰因果检验来探讨矿产资源开发、经济发展、工业化与城市化之间的动态相关性。结果显示:矿产资源开发与经济发展、工业化发展和城市化水平之间存在长期的协整关系;矿产资源开发与工业水平、城市化水平之间存在双向格兰杰因果关系,矿产资源开发指数每提高1%,工业化水平也相应地提高0.24%,城市化综合水平也相应地提高1.25%;而经济发展存在到矿产资源开发的单向因果关系,经济发展水平每提高1%,矿产资源开采指数相应地提高0.47%。目前资源优势是新疆经济发展的有利条件,并没有陷入"资源诅咒"陷阱;新疆矿产资源开发、经济发展、工业化水平和城市化水平四大系统相互影响,共同推动着彼此的发展。因此,合理开发利用矿产资源,是新疆目前区域发展非常紧迫的战略问题。

关键词: 矿产资源开发, 区域发展, 城市化, 新疆

Abstract: Mineral resource exploitation has important impact on regional economic development, industrialization level and urbanization. Taking Xinjiang as an example, this paper analyses the basic feature of mineral resource exploitation, economic development, industrialization level and urbanization. On this basis, dynamic computation model is established to discuss the relativity of mineral resource exploitation, economic development, industrialization level and urbanization by the method of Granger causality test and co-integration analysis. The conclusions are as follows: Over the years, the development of mineral resources has affected economic development, industrialization and urbanization level. Whenever the mineral resource exploitation index increases by 1%, it will lead to a 0.24% increase of industrialization level and 1.25% increase of urbanization level. Mineral resource exploitation is the causation of development of industrialization level and urbanization level, urbanization level and development of industrialization level is the causation of mineral resource exploitation; economic development and urbanization level is the causation of mineral resource exploitation, but mineral resource exploitation is not the causation of economic development. At present, resource superiority is the favorable condition to the development of Xinjiang’s economiy, which is not plunge into the trap of "resource curse". The four systems of mineral resource exploitation, economic development, the level of industrialization and the level of urbanization interact, and jointly promote the mutual development in Xinjiang. How to perfect land provision system to meet the demand of economic growth,industrialization and urbanization at present are very pressing strategic issues.

Key words: mineral resource exploitation, arid zone, regional development, Xinjiang

中图分类号: 

  • F407.1