中国区域年降水空间分布高精度曲面建模

doi:10.11849/zrzyxb.2010.07.015

自然资源学报 ›› 2010, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (7): 1194-1205.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2010.07.015

中国区域年降水空间分布高精度曲面建模

卢毅敏^1,2, 岳天祥¹, 陈传法¹, 王情¹, 王钦敏²

1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室, 北京 100101;
2. 福州大学福建省空间信息工程研究中心, 空间数据挖掘与信息共享教育部重点实验室(福州大学), 福州 350002

收稿日期:2009-12-20 修回日期:2010-05-18 出版日期:2010-07-10 发布日期:2010-07-10
作者简介:卢毅敏(1973- ),男,福建人,研究方向为资源环境模型与系统模拟。E-mail:luym@lreis.ac.cn
基金资助:
国家杰出青年科学基金(40825003);国家科技支撑计划课题(2006BAC08B04);中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(kzcx2-yw-429);资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室自主研究项目(081105);国家科技支撑计划课题(2007BAH16B01)。

Surface Modelling of Annual Precipitation in China

LU Yi-min^1,2, YUE Tian-xiang¹, CHEN Chuan-fa¹, WANG Qing¹, WANG Qin-min²

1. State Key Laboratory of Resource and Environment Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
2. Key Laboratory of Data Mining & Information Sharing of Ministry of Education, Spatial Information Research Center of Fujian Province, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou 350002, China

Received:2009-12-20 Revised:2010-05-18 Online:2010-07-10 Published:2010-07-10

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 论文利用781个采样站点的降水数据(中国大陆729个气象台站1951—2002年间月降水观测数据、台湾地区25个站点1971—2000年年均降水数据、世界"雨极"乞拉朋齐年均降水量以及中国西部增设的26个虚拟站点模拟数据),选取有效的敏感性解析因子经纬度、高程、坡向修正系数与地形开阔度等,建立累年平均降水与相关解析因子之间的多元回归方程(降水总体趋势)。并对于回归拟合后与局部变化有关的"随机指示项",采用HASM算法进一步插值处理。模型充分考虑其他地理环境因子的影响,在采样点稀疏区域使用虚拟站点辅助模拟,克服了传统模拟方法完全依赖观测站点实测资料,在站点稀疏区域等雨量线走向主观性的缺点;模型模拟结果既突出空间分布的总体趋势,也反映局地细节变化。

关键词: 年降水量, 趋势面分析, 空间插值, HASM, 虚拟站点, 中国

Abstract: Based on the precipitation data from 781 sampling points (755 meteorological stations and 26 suppositional stations) in the study area, the formulae used to estimate the annual mean precipitation have been obtained, and the characteristics of the geographic or topographic effects have been presented. The impact factors included longitude, latitude, elevation, terrain aspect and unobstructed factor are significant factors explaining annual mean precipitation spatial variability in China. Detrending of annual precipitation distribution, the residual anomaly for local change was simulated by HASM algorithm. Setting suppositional meteorological stations over regions with no measured data, a new method enabled us to estimate precipitation in regions with sparse measured sites. The results show that the estimated annual precipitation correctly replicates real spatial distribution of precipitation qualitatively and quantitatively.

Key words: China, annual precipitation, trend surface analysis, spatial interpolation, HASM, suppositional stations

卢毅敏, 岳天祥, 陈传法, 王情, 王钦敏. 中国区域年降水空间分布高精度曲面建模[J]. 自然资源学报, 2010, 25(7): 1194-1205.

LU Yi-min, YUE Tian-xiang, CHEN Chuan-fa, WANG Qing, WANG Qin-min. Surface Modelling of Annual Precipitation in China[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2010, 25(7): 1194-1205.

参考文献

[1] Yue T X, Fan Z M, Liu J Y. Scenarios of land cover in China [J]. Global and Planetary Change, 2007, 55(4): 317-342. [2] Moulin L, Gaume E, Obled C. Uncertainties on mean areal precipitation: Assessment and impact on streamflow simulations [J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2009, 13(2): 99-114. [3] Riha S J, Wilks D S, Simoens P. Impact of temperature and precipitation variability on crop model predictions [J]. Climatic Change, 1996, 32(3): 293-311. [4] de Wit A J W, Boogaard H L, van Diepen C A. Spatial resolution of precipitation and radiation: The effect on regional crop yield forecasts [J]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2005, 135(1/4): 156-168. [5] Yue T X, Tian Y Z, Liu J Y, et al. Surface modeling of human carrying capacity of terrestrial ecosystems in China [J]. Ecological Modelling, 2008, 214(2/4): 168-180. [6] 朱会义, 刘述林, 贾绍凤. 自然地理要素空间插值的几个问题[J]. 地理研究, 2004, 23(4): 425-432. [7] Gold C M, Remmele P R, Roos T. Voronoi methods in GIS [J]. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, 1997, 1340: 21-36. [8] Legates D R, Willmott C J. Mean seasonal and spatial variability in global surface air temperature [J]. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 1990, 41(1): 11-21. [9] Szolgay J, Parajka J, Kohnová S, et al. Comparison of mapping approaches of design annual maximum daily precipitation [J]. Atmospheric Research, 2009, 92(3): 289-307. [10] Alsamamra H, Ruiz-Arias J A, Pozo-Vázquez D, et al. A comparative study of ordinary and residual kriging techniques for mapping global solar radiation over southern Spain [J]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2009: 1343-1357. [11] Hofierka J, Parajka J, Mitasova H, et al. Multivariate interpolation of precipitation using regularized spline with tension [J]. Transactions in GIS, 2002, 6(2): 135-150. [12] Peel M C, McMahon T A, Pegram G G S. Assessing the performance of rational spline-based empirical mode decomposition using a global annual precipitation dataset [J]. Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Science, 2009, 465(2106): 1-19. [13] 岳天祥, 杜正平. 高精度曲面建模与经典模型的误差比较分析[J]. 自然科学进展, 2006, 16(8): 986-991. [14] Shi W J, Liu J Y, Du Z P, et al. Surface modelling of soil pH [J]. Geoderma, 2009, 150(1/2): 113-119. [15] Nalder I A, Wein R W. Spatial interpolation of climatic Normals: Test of a new method in the Canadian boreal forest [J]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 1998, 92(4): 211-225. [16] Price D T, McKenney D W, Nalder I A, et al. A comparison of two statistical methods for spatial interpolation of Canadian monthly mean climate data [J]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2000, 101(2/3): 81-94. [17] 林忠辉, 莫兴国, 李宏轩, 等. 中国陆地区域气象要素的空间插值[J]. 地理学报, 2002, 57(1): 47-56. [18] Daly C, Neilson R P, Phillips D L. A statistical-topographic model for mapping climatological precipitation over mountainous terrain [J]. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 1994, 33(2): 140-158. [19] Daly C, Halbleib M, Smith J I, et al. Physiographically sensitive mapping of climatological temperature and precipitation across the conterminous United States [J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2008, 28(15): 2031-2064. [20] 阎洪. 薄板光顺样条插值与中国气候空间模拟[J]. 地理科学, 2004, 24(2): 163-169. [21] Basist A, Bell G D, Meentemeyer V. Statistical relationships between topography and precipitation patterns [J]. Journal of Climate, 1994, 7(9): 1305-1315. [22] Marquínez J, Lastra J, García P. Estimation models for precipitation in mountainous regions: The use of GIS and multivariate analysis [J]. Journal of Hydrology (Amsterdam), 2003, 270(1/2): 1-11. [23] Zhu A X, Hudson B, Burt J, et al. Soil mapping using GIS, expert knowledge, and fuzzy logic [J]. Soil Science Society of America Journal, 2001, 65(5): 1463-1472. [24] Tomassetti B, Verdecchia M, Giorgi F. NN5: A neural network based approach for the downscaling of precipitation fields—Model description and preliminary results [J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2009, 367(1/2): 14-26. [25] Collins F C, Bolstad P V. A comparison of spatial interpolation techniques in temperature estimation//Third International Conference/Workshop on Integrating GIS and Environmental Modeling. Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA. 1996. [26] Nalder I A, Wein R W. Spatial interpolation of climatic Normals: Test of a new method in the Canadian boreal forest [J]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 1998, 92(4): 211-225. [27] Brynjólfsson S, lafsson H. Precipitation in the Svarfaardalur region, North-Iceland [J]. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 2009, 103(1): 57-66. [28] 舒守娟, 王元, 熊安元. 中国区域地理, 地形因子对降水分布影响的估算和分析[J]. 地球物理学报, 2007, 50(6): 1703-1712. [SHU Shou-juan, WANG Yuan, XIONG An-yuan. Estimation and analysis for geographic and orographic influences on precipitation distribution in China. Chinese J. Geophys., 2007, 50(6): 1703-1712.] [29] Immerzeel W W, Rutten M M, Droogers P. Spatial downscaling of TRMM precipitation using vegetative response on the Iberian Peninsula [J]. Remote Sensing of Environment, 2009, 113(2): 362-370. [30] 崔林丽, 史军, 杨引明, 等. 中国东部植被NDVI 对气温和降水的旬响应特征[J]. 地理学报, 2009, 64(7): 850-860. [31] Spadavecchia L, Williams M. Can spatio-temporal geostatistical methods improve high resolution regionalisation of meteorological variables? [J] Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2009, 149(6/7): 1105-1117. [32] 穆兴民, 陈国良. 黄土高原降水与地理因素的空间结构趋势面分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 1993, 16(2): 71-76. [33] 孙鹏森, 刘世荣, 李崇巍. 基于地形和主风向效应模拟山区降水空间分布[J]. 生态学报, 2004, 24(9): 1910-1915. [34] Franke J, Hntzschel J, Goldberg V, et al. Application of a trigonometric approach to the regionalization of precipitation for a complex small-scale terrain in a GIS environment [J]. Meteorological Applications, 2008, 15: 483-490. [35] 辜智慧, 史培军, 陈晋. 气象观测站点稀疏地区的降水插值方法探讨——以锡林郭勒盟为例[J]. 北京师范大学学报: 自然科学版, 2006, 42(2): 204-208. [36] Wang J, Rich P M, Price K P. Temporal responses of NDVI to precipitation and temperature in the central Great Plains, USA [J]. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 2003, 24(11): 2345-2364. [37] Sun R H, Zhang B P, Tan J. A multivariate regression model for predicting precipitation in the Daqing Mountains [J]. Mountain Research and Development, 2008, 28(3): 318-325. [38] Guan H, Hsu H H, Makhnin O, et al. Examination of selected atmospheric and orographic effects on monthly precipitation of Taiwan using the ASOADeK model [J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2008, 29: 1171-1181.

中国区域年降水空间分布高精度曲面建模

Surface Modelling of Annual Precipitation in China

PDF (PC)

赞

可视化

被引次数

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 15

Metrics

本文评价

推荐阅读 0

[1]	马恩朴, 蔡建明, 林静, 廖柳文, 郭华, 韩燕. 近30年中国农业源氮磷排放的格局特征与水环境影响[J]. 自然资源学报, 2021, 36(3): 752-770.
[2]	余斌, 李营营, 朱媛媛, 卓蓉蓉, 曾菊新. 中国中部农区乡村重构特征及其地域模式——以江汉平原为例[J]. 自然资源学报, 2020, 35(9): 2063-2078.
[3]	成升魁, 沈镭, 封志明, 钟帅. 中国自然资源研究的发展历程及展望[J]. 自然资源学报, 2020, 35(8): 1757-1772.
[4]	沈镭, 钟帅, 胡纾寒. 新时代中国自然资源研究的机遇与挑战[J]. 自然资源学报, 2020, 35(8): 1773-1788.
[5]	陈明星, 周园, 汤青, 刘晔. 新型城镇化、居民福祉与国土空间规划应对[J]. 自然资源学报, 2020, 35(6): 1273-1287.
[6]	李帅, 张勃, 马彬, 候启, 何航. 基于格点数据的中国1961—2016年≥5 ℃、≥10 ℃有效积温时空演变[J]. 自然资源学报, 2020, 35(5): 1216-1227.
[7]	杨传明. 新旧常态中国产业全碳足迹复杂网络比较[J]. 自然资源学报, 2020, 35(2): 313-328.
[8]	方梓行, 何春阳, 刘志锋, 赵媛媛, 杨延杰. 中国北方农牧交错带气候变化特点及未来趋势——基于观测和模拟资料的综合分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2020, 35(2): 358-370.
[9]	湛东升, 吴倩倩, 余建辉, 张文忠, 张娟锋. 中国资源型城市房价时空变化与影响因素分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2020, 35(12): 2888-2900.
[10]	刘承良, 王杰, 杜德斌. 中美能源权力的空间领域与均势区演化[J]. 自然资源学报, 2020, 35(11): 2596-2612.
[11]	夏四友, 郝丽莎, 唐文敏, 崔盼盼, 吴凤连. 复杂网络视角下世界石油流动的竞合态势演变及对中国石油合作的启示[J]. 自然资源学报, 2020, 35(11): 2655-2673.
[12]	何则, 周彦楠, 刘毅. 2050年中国能源消费结构的系统动力学模拟——基于重点行业的转型情景[J]. 自然资源学报, 2020, 35(11): 2696-2707.
[13]	王长建, 汪菲, 叶玉瑶, 张新林, 苏泳娴, 姜璐, 李增, 张虹鸥. 基于供需视角的中国煤炭消费演变特征及其驱动机制[J]. 自然资源学报, 2020, 35(11): 2708-2723.
[14]	黄永源, 朱晟君. 公众环境关注、环境规制与中国能源密集型产业动态[J]. 自然资源学报, 2020, 35(11): 2744-2758.
[15]	宋峰, 代莹, 史艳慧, 王博. 国家保护地体系建设：西方标准反思与中国路径探讨[J]. 自然资源学报, 2019, 34(9): 1807-1819.