自然资源学报

自然资源学报 ›› 2008, Vol. 23 ›› Issue (3): 528-533.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2008.03.020

• 资源研究方法 • 上一篇    下一篇

多层递阶方法在变化环境下非一致性水文序列分析中的应用

方燕娜1, 陈兴伟1, 杨青春2   

  1. 1. 福建师范大学地理科学学院 福州350007;
    2. 西班牙拉科鲁尼亚大学土木工程系 15071西班牙
  • 收稿日期:2007-03-18 修回日期:2007-10-10 出版日期:2008-05-28 发布日期:2008-05-28
  • 作者简介:方燕娜(1980-),女,福建福州人,水文学及水资源专业,博士后,主要从事变化环境下水资源系统分析研究。E-mai:lfangyanna@126.com
  • 基金资助:

    福建重点学科建设项目“海峡西岸资源环境科技创新能力建设”(2004年)

Application of Multi-level Recursive Method in Forecasting Inconsistent Annual Runoff Series under Changing Environment

FANG Yan-na1, CHEN Xing-wei1, YANG Qing-chun2   

  1. 1. College of Geographical Science,Fujian Normal University,Fuzhou 350007,China;
    2. Department of Hydrology and Civil Engineering,University of Acoruna,15071,Spain
  • Received:2007-03-18 Revised:2007-10-10 Online:2008-05-28 Published:2008-05-28

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17 | 2

摘要： 由于受人类活动、气候等外界变化环境的影响,用于水资源评价计算的天然年径流量序列失去了一致性。为了适应变化环境对水文预报的要求,提出了基于时变参数的非一致性年径流序列的多层递阶预报方法。该方法不同于传统带固定参数的模型,它是将预报对象看作为随机动态时变系统,首先进行动态系统的时变参数预报,进而在参数预报基础之上对系统状态预报,从而提高了预测结果的可靠性。以闽江竹岐水文站为例,进行年径流量的中长期预报,为区域水资源的优化管理提供科学的依据。

关键词: 年径流, 变化环境, 非一致性, 多层递阶方法, 闽江竹岐水文站

Abstract: Owing to the effects of changing environment,such as human activities and climate,the natural annual runoff series for water resources evaluation calculation lost their consistency.In order to adapt to a changing environment demand for inconsistent annual runoff forecast,multi-level recursive method is applied.Different from previous mathematical statistic method with fixed-parameters,the multi-level recursive method is the one just dealing with the time-space variation system.The dependability of forecasted results will be enhanced because the regime of runoff is forecasted based the time-varying parameters forecasted in the model.The paper will illustrate the method by taking Zhuqi station of Minjiang River as an example,and the results will provide scientific basis for planning water use in the future.

Key words: annual runoff, changing environment, inconsistency, multi-level recursive method, Zhuqi station of Minjiang River

中图分类号: 

  • P339