关键词: 耕地流转, 影响因素, Logistic模型, 实证研究

Abstract: Cultivated land transfer is an essential means for resolving the harmonies between the flaw of household contract responsibility system and the demands of agricultural modernization.In this paper,basing on the survey of 1396 households in 74 villages of 38 counties in Jiangxi province,the Logistic regressive model was set up to analyze factors affecting the households' behavior in cultivated land transfer out and in.And the affecting factors were divided into 3 groups: family characteristic factors,household economic factors and cultivated land resource gift.The family characteristic factors include total population,total labor forces,proportion of employees at non-agriculture to total labor forces;the household economic factors include income per person,the proportion of income from farmland to total income;and resource gift factors include physiognomy,cultivated land area per person,and spatial distribution of cultivated land.The results showed that non-agriculture employment opportunity plays a most important role in the cultivated land transfer out;the household income level and cultivated land transfer are mutually affected,the household income of transfer out is generally higher than that of transfer in;physiognomy is another important factor affecting the households' behavior in cultivated land transfer,the more flat physiognomy is,the more easy the cultivated land transfer out.So,in order to promote cultivated land transfer,some actions should be taken such as accelerating rural labor forces transfer into non-agriculture,increasing support for agriculture,and improving the spatial distribution of cultivated land.

Key words: cultivated land transfer, affected factors, the logistic regressive model, empirical study