关键词: 中国风电场, 英国风电, 时空分布, 区域划分, 聚类分析, 逐步判别

Abstract: Wind energy,as a kind of reproducible resource without any pollution,has been developed fast all over the world in the past 20 years.Early of 2006,wind farms have been set up in 66 countries with an accumulated installed capacity up to 59.322GW,to which China has contributed 1.262GW.At present,there are 59 wind farms built in 15 provinces in China.It has shown that wind power is the most rapidly developing continuable energy resource in the whole world and in China,where the average rise ratio reached 28.6% and 42.8% in the past 10 years. According to the plan of China,wind power used for electricity will reach 30GW in 2020.Thus, study on location selection and spatial distribution of wind farms is becoming more and more important in China. Based on the pertinent data from 1991 to 2005 of both China and UK,the most interrelated countries in the developing process for wind power use compared with other four countries via correlation coefficients analysis,the evolution process of wind use could be divided into three comparative stages:examination stage,scale developing stage and transition developing stage,and future large scale developing stage.Compared with UK, it could be forecasted that the number of wind farms in China will increase fast,and the pattern of spatial distribution will change from convergence to cluster.With the methods of Principal Component Analysis(PCA)and Hierarchical Cluster Analysis(HCA)using eight variables about the nature,market and policy, checked with Discriminating Analysis(DA),wind energy development in China could be divided into three regions and eight sub-regions,which are scale developing region,steadily developing region and under-exploited region.The result indicated that the accuracy is 92.6% of the original grouped cases classified.This study is helpful for the further wind energy utilization in China.

Key words: wind farm in China, Britain wind-power development, spatial-temporal distribution, PCA, HCA, DA