自然资源学报

自然资源学报 ›› 2007, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (3): 471-477.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2007.03.017

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雅鲁藏布江径流变化趋势及原因分析

刘剑 姚治君 陈传友   

  1. 1.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京100101; 2.中国科学院研究生院, 北京100049
  • 收稿日期:2007-02-03 修回日期:2007-03-03 出版日期:2007-05-15 发布日期:2007-05-15
  • 通讯作者: 姚治君( 1959- ) , 男, 研究员。 E-mail:E-mail: yaozj@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 作者简介:刘剑( 1982- ) , 女, 内蒙古人, 博士研究生, 主要从事水资源与湖泊水文研究。
  • 基金资助:

    国家重点基础研究发展计划项目( 批准号: 2005CB422006) 与国家自然科学基金项目( 40371006) 资助。

Evolution Tr end and Causation Analysis of the Runoff Evolution in the Yar lung Zangbo River Basin

LIU Jian1, 2, YAO Zhi-jun1, CHEN Chuan-you1   

  1. 1.Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    2.Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2007-02-03 Revised:2007-03-03 Online:2007-05-15 Published:2007-05-15

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58 | 18

摘要： 论文利用1956—2000 年近45a 的天然径流逐月资料, 1956—2004 年近50a 的气温、降水逐 月资料, 分析了20 世纪下半叶雅鲁藏布江流域径流变化特征及其与气候变化的关系。研究表明: 雅 鲁藏布江流域径流的年际变化较稳定, 年内分配极不平衡, 月最大径流量占全年百分比达30.1%, 而月最小径流量只占全年的2.1%, 枯水季节径流量和洪水季节径流量相差较悬殊; 雅鲁藏布江流 域普遍存在升温的变化趋势, 同时流域内降水增加趋势较明显, 变化周期与径流变化周期较一致。 从雅鲁藏布江流域天然径流代际变化的初步分析来看, 流域来水的增加, 主要受制于降水和气温的 变化, 也受到流域地表状况变化的影响, 同时也可能是河流丰枯长周期变化的表现。这种周期变化 还需相关资料的验证和分析。

关键词: 径流\ 雅鲁藏布江流域, 变化趋势, 降水, 气温

Abstract: This paper makes use of the monthly natural runoff data from1956 to 2000, the monthly air temperature data and precipitation data from 1956 to 2004 to analyze the evolution characteristics of the runoff in the Yarlung Zangbo River basin in the later half of the 20th century and the relation between runoff evolution and climatic change.The results show that the interannual evolution of the runoff in the Yarlung Zangbo River basin is stable, but the intraannual distribution of the runoff is extremely uneven, the maximum monthly runoff accounts for 30.1%, while the minimum runoff only accounts for 2.1%, and indication of the great difference in the runoff between low water season and flood water season.The climate in the Yarlung Zangbo River basin is calefactive, and the increasing trend of the precipitation is obvious, having the same evolution periods with runoff.After elementary analysis of the decadal runoff in the Yarlung Zangbo River basin, we found that the increase of the water supply is mainly controlled by climate change, but is also affected by the changes of the earth surface conditions in the basin and maybe a representation of the long period of variation of high and low stream flow. Relevant data are required to validate and analyze this kind of periodic variations.

Key words: runoff, the Yarlung Zangbo River basin, evolution trend, precipitation, air temperature

中图分类号: 

  • P339