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### 基于STIRPAT模型分析中国环境压力的时间差异——以1952—2003年能源消费为例

1. 中国矿业大学环境与测绘学院,江苏徐州221008
• 收稿日期:2006-04-29 修回日期:2006-07-03 出版日期:2006-12-25 发布日期:2006-12-25
• 通讯作者: E-mail: hekang4787@tom.com E-mail:E-mail: hekang4787@tom.com
• 作者简介:王立猛（1981），男，山东济宁人，硕士研究生，主要从事产业生态研究。E-mail: cumtimpact@sohu.com

### Analysis on Temporal Variation of Environmental Impact Based on STIRPAT Model——A Case Study of Energy Consumption of China

WANG Li-meng, HE Kang-lin

1. School of Environment and Spatial Information,China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou 221008,China
• Received:2006-04-29 Revised:2006-07-03 Online:2006-12-25 Published:2006-12-25

Abstract: Human activities have dramatically altered the global environment,quantitative analysis on the impacts of human activities on environment is one of the highlights in the research field of sustainable development.The total energy consumption and the pollutions from energy consumption processes were taken as the indexes of two different kinds of environmental impacts.Utilizing the STIRPAT model,taking total energy consumption time-series data of China from 1952 to 2003 as an example,this paper analyzed the effect by the anthropogenic driving forces on environmental impacts,including total population,affluence,energy intensity and chosen behavior of energy consumption.The result showed that a 1% change in total population or energy intensity results in a 1.992% or 0.777% change,respectively.With the growth of affluence,the coefficient of affluence elasticity of impact will increase.So,in this empirical study,the overall findings do not support the environment Kuznets curve hypothesis.In different decades,the effects of the anthropogenic driving forces vary dramatically.The growth of total population and affluence has positive effect on environmental impacts;however,the fluctuation of energy intensity has positive or negative effect on environmental impacts in different decades.The behavior of clean energy consumption is helpful to control the environmental impacts which takes the pollution from energy consumption processes as an index.The change of environmental impacts was determined by the net effect of all kinds of anthropogenic driving forces.