• 资源管理 •

中国人口与资源环境耦合的演进分析

1. 1. 兰州大学资源环境学院,兰州730000;
2. 兰州大学管理学院,兰州730000
• 收稿日期:2006-03-13 修回日期:2006-05-17 出版日期:2006-12-25 发布日期:2006-12-25
• 作者简介:牛叔文（1955），男，甘肃兰州人，教授、博导，从事区域可持续发展与生态经济研究。E-mail: shuwenn@lzu.edu.cn
• 基金资助:

国家软科学项目(2003DGS3B039)资助

Evolutional Analysis of Coupling between Population and Resource-environment in China

WU Wen-heng1, NIU Shu-wen1, GUO Xiao-dong1,2, CHANG Hui-li1, LI Gang1

1. 1. College of Earth and Environmental Sciences,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China;
2. College of Management,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China
• Received:2006-03-13 Revised:2006-05-17 Online:2006-12-25 Published:2006-12-25

Abstract: Due to rapid population growth and economic developing since reform and opening to the outside world,resource-environment has been influenced intensively in China,so the man-land contradiction is becoming more and more obvious.Based on the panel and serial statistical data,status of population and resource-environment coupling has been researched by the principal component analysis and the coordinated development degree model in China during 1985-2004.The results are:①On one hand,the comprehensive development capability of population has increased continuously.The maximum integrated population development index reached 0.809 4 in 1998.On the other hand,the comprehensive status of resource-environment has declined with a fluctuant falling trend since 1985,and its integrated index has decreased from 0.551 1 to-0.147 9.Population development is at the cost of unsustainable utilization of resource-environment.②The relationship of population and resource-environment coupling varies gradually from awful maladjustment to elementary harmony,and then to secondary maladjustment.The maximum coordinated development degree came up to 0.637 9 in 1994.The direct cause of variation of coupling relationship is that population system and resource-environment system didn't continuously cooperate with each other from 1985 to 2004.③The carrying capability of resource-environment is limited while demands of human being are increasingly expanding,so sustainable development faces huge pressure in China.It is difficult to achieve the goal of ensuring our people a relative comfortable life since China's per capita GDP was only 3 923 yuan in 1994.④Suggestions that would make for sustainable development were put forward in this paper,such as controlling population quantity,improving population quality,making progress in technology,strengthening protection to resource-environment,and moderation consumption.The coordinated development mode that makes population and resource-environment interact well should be chosen.