• 资源经济 •

### 中国能源消费结构的变动规律研究

1. 1. 南京大学城市与资源学系,南京210093;
2. 南京师范大学地理科学学院,南京210097
• 收稿日期:2005-10-08 修回日期:2005-12-07 出版日期:2006-06-25 发布日期:2006-06-25
• 作者简介:管卫华（1970），男，江苏如皋人，博士后，主要从事城市、区域经济与资源环境研究.E-mail:vhguan@163.com
• 基金资助:

教育部博士点基金项目“中国城市化过程及其机理研究”(20040284012);国家自然科学重点基金项目(40435013);南京大学博士后基金

### Study on the Change of Energy Consumption Structure in China

GUAN Wei-hua1, GU Chao-lin1, LIN Zhen-shan2

1. 1. Department of Urban and Resources Sciences,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210093,China;
2. College of Geographic Sciences,Nanjing Normal University,Nanjing 210097,China
• Received:2005-10-08 Revised:2005-12-07 Online:2006-06-25 Published:2006-06-25

Abstract: The energy problem has been one of the important problems affecting the suitable development of socioeconomic in China.The change of the energy consumption structure not only accelerates the economic development,but also closely relates with the suitable development of national economy.In view of the simulation and prediction of total energy supply and demand in China,there is a great gap,thus it is necessary to reduce energy consumption and transit energy consumption structure.Based on the dynamics theory,this paper sets up a forecast model of energy supply and demand in China,and forecasts the energy consumption structure.The research shows that this model can preferably simulate and predict that,in China's energy consumption structure,the consumption rate of coal will decrease,while the rates of water and electricity,natural gas and petroleum will increase,especially the status of petroleum will ascend in the energy consumption structure.Thus,the problem about petroleum affecting the suitable development of socioeconomy in China will become more and more prominent.From the change of the energy consumption proportion in each department since the recent 10 years,the percentage of residential and primary industrial energy consumption descended a little,the percentage of tertiary industry energy consumption ascended,and the consumption proportion of energy for industrial production has been in the highest flight all along.Therefore,it is necessary to adjust the industry structure,reduce the percentage of industry with high energy consumption and depress the high-speed growth of energy consumption with the tertiary industry increasing quickly,so as to ensure energy consumption increase in a suitable speed.As for the balance of supply and demand of petroleum,on the one hand it is needed to improve the use efficiency and regulate the industrial structure;on the other hand it is necessary to take effective measure to reduce petroleum consumption in the tertiary industry.