关键词: 石油, 供应安全, 指标体系, 定量评价, 主成分分析法, 德尔菲法, 石油安全度

Abstract: Petroleum security is highly significant for the national economic development.With the rapid growth of economy in China,the contradiction between petroleum supply and demand has become further sharpened due to the impact of domestic petroleum shortage and petroleum geopolitics,and so the problem of petroleum security is becoming more and more apparent. In order to appraise the situation of China's petroleum security scientifically,this paper firstly introduced 24 indicators to design an evaluating system.The system included the following four aspects:(1)domestic petroleum resources gifts,(2)domestic petroleum throughput capacity,(3)availability from the international market,and(4)domestic emergency response and mana,gement ability.Then,the study adopted the Delphi technique and the principal components analysis method and chose six factors from the system to form a new integrated index,namely,the petroleum security degree.The six factors were the domestic crude oil reserve,production ratio,the domestic crude oil reserve replacement ratio,the dependence of domestic petroleum consump,tion on import,the concentration ratio of domestic petroleum imports,the international crude oil prices,and the domestic petroleum reservation storage level.Finally,this research applied the integrated index to make a quantitative appraisement on China's petroleum security in recent years. The equation of the petroleum security degree is: P■=■W■×U■ i=1,2,...,n where Pi is the petroleum security degree in the i th year;Wij is the j th factor's dimensionless observation values in the i th year;and Uj is the j th factor's dimensionless weight parameter. The petroleum security degree(PSD) is divided into five grades in terms of the integrated index values: Grade I:the PSD is 1-0.8.Only very few factors are in a state of insecurity,the risk of petroleum supply is the lowest,the situation is generally safe. Grade II:the PSD is 0.8-0.6.Only minority of the factors are in a state of insecurity,the risk of petroleum supply is low,the situation is weakly safe. Grade III:the PSD is 0.6-0.4.Nearly half or more than half of the factors are in a state of insecurity,the risk of petroleum supply is high,the situation is unsafe. Grade IV:the PSD is 0.4-0.2.Majority of the factors are in a state of insecurity,the risk of petroleum supply is higher,the situation is strongly unsafe. Grade V:the PSD is below 0.2.Overwhelming majority of the factors are in a state of insecurity,the risk of petroleum supply is the highest,the situation is severely unsafe. The conclusion shows that the China's petroleum security degree is 0.54-0.75 during 1993-2004,between Grade II and III,i.e.from "weak safety "to"unsafety",therefore,this situation should be paid more attention to.This research also used the same criterion and the same method to analyze the United States'petroleum situation during the same period of time.The United States' petroleum security degree is 0.31-0.77,averaging 0.60,while China's averaging is 0.64.It seems that the China's petroleum security situation is a little better than the United States'.

Key words: petroleum, supply security, indicator system, quantitative appraisement, principal components analysis, Delphi technique, degree of petroleum safety