自然资源学报 ›› 2005, Vol. 20 ›› Issue (1): 35-43.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2005.01.006

• 资源利用与管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国耕地资源数量变化的趋势分析与数据重建:1949~2003

封志明1, 刘宝勤1,2, 杨艳昭1,2   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京 100101;
    2. 中国科学院研究生院, 北京 100039
  • 收稿日期:2004-06-29 修回日期:2004-08-19 出版日期:2005-02-25 发布日期:2005-02-25
  • 作者简介:封志明(1963-),男.河北平山人.研究员.博士生导师.主要从事农业资源高效利用与区域可持续发展研究.旁及资源科学的理论探讨.
  • 基金资助:

    中科院知识创新工程重要方向项目(KZCX3-SW-333).

A Study of the Changing Trend of Chinese Cultivated Land Amount and Data Reconstructing:1949-2003

FENG Zhi-ming1, LIU Bao-qin1,2, YANG Yan-zhao1,2   

  1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    2. Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, China
  • Received:2004-06-29 Revised:2004-08-19 Online:2005-02-25 Published:2005-02-25

摘要: 由于统计方面的原因,1949年以来中国耕地资源数量变化至今尚没有一个客观的描述。针对该问题,论文对1949~2003年不同时期不同来源的耕地数据系列进行分析,认为统计数据存在问题较多的时期为1960~1985年,并采用粮食产量对耕地面积进行了分时期的反演,对于1986~1996年间的耕地数量则按照全国土地利用详查统一到1996年的结果再进行反推,由此重新刻画建国以来中国耕地资源数量变化的趋势和特征,并结合不同时段耕地相关政策对耕地数量变化的驱动作用进行分析。结果表明,1949年以来中国耕地资源数量呈现波动性变化,但在1979年之前总体上是增加的,自20世纪80年代起呈现缓慢下滑,1999年后由于生态退耕等原因引起耕地数量迅速减少,由此导致的中国粮食安全问题与耕地安全问题值得关注。在经过一段快速的大规模生态退耕时期后,中国生态退耕速度将逐步趋缓,耕地安全与粮食安全将会成为影响中国耕地数量变化的主要问题,严格的耕地保护政策势必将贯彻下去,预计2010年后中国的耕地资源数量将趋于稳定。

关键词: 土地利用, 中国耕地资源, 趋势分析, 数据重建

Abstract: Studies of cultivated land change in China have long been hampered by the lack of accurate and reliable data since 1949.By analyzing the cultivated land data from different sources in different phases after 1949,the paper considers the statistics with more errors happens during 1960-1985.According to the systematic data on land use gathered in the 1996 survey,based on reverse deduction of the cultivated land area from 1986 to 1996,and deduction of the cultivated land area from 1960 to 1985 by stages by employing yield of grain,this paper redescribed the actual changing trend and character of Chinese cultivated land and analyzed the driving force of the policy relative to cultivated land to cultivated land area change.The result indicated that the Chinese cultivated land amount has been fluctuating since the founding of New China in 1949.It increased as a whole before 1979,and decreased slowly since the 1980s.The cultivated land amount decreased rapidly after 1999 because of cultivated land conversion into land for ecological purpose,hence the problems of grain security and cultivated land security result from which need to be paid more attention to.In future,the pace of ecological cultivated land conversion will be slowed down gradually after a fast ecological rescue phase,the grain security and cultivated land security will become the main influencing factors which affect changes of Chinese cultivated land amount.With the strict implementation of cultivated land protecting policy,the Chinese cultivated land amount will keep steady after 2010.

Key words: land use, Chinese cultivated land, trend analysis, data reconstructing

中图分类号: 

  • F301.24